Hat,s "MATCH-UP" My way
 

Sat. Aug.14-2010

Race#1=#4 Seedless= Early 7/5 fav. has a EZ comfort zone=pass low
odds

Race#6 =self explanatory this is how I have matched my last 1,500+or-
races, and It works very good!!Attachment 20373

Attachment 20374

Attachment 20375

Jeff,

Alas, your notes are not self-explanatory (at least to me). Would you kindly add some explanation for the readers.

Ted

Hat,s "MATCH-UP" My way
 

Attachment 20389

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PDF file size max 1.53 M.B. dictates 4 pages.

Sometime,s actual old style forms are the best tool to represent
one,s method.
I prefer to use Projected pace of race,with a heavy slant towards
2nd call & final time, heavy 1st call use to judge EARLY,S is a must.
2nd call time is based on actual pressure the probable leader will
face,and the rateability it shows.
Final time must match "EARLY PACE OF RACE 1ST&2ND CALL"
Pick the best final# that "HAS A HIGH% CHANCE OF BEING
DUPLICATED",not a freak # or out of norm.#


W.T.W. stands for "WILL TO WIN" as posted by me 2 years ago after
Mine that bird,s derby. There are basically 3 types of wins by a
horse,
1- a lone F-where even if the animal doesnt actually want to win
nobody comes and gets him.
2-a "MASSIVE CLASS DROPPER" where the horse runs its normal
race and it is shocked that it didnt get crushed by its foes.
3- A horse that actually is trying to win,not just to come storming up
late then refuse to pass the leader in deep stretch,this is the most
overlooked factor "EVER", if you think that all horses are all out
to win you are dead wrong!!
Take a horse that had a double call fight in its last race 1.5 years ago
then was layed off and comes back and wins do you think it was
becuase it had extra units of energy from that race?? Fighting
is the number 1 sign of a "MENTALLY WILLING HORSE"
No one that Ihave ever heard of since 1977 even gives this a 2nd
thought. Combine this with a final match-up contender,and it
will run 1st or 2nd 75% of the time,ask me how Iknow.

Jeff, any further commentary forthcoming on the above Del mar race and your process?

Ted

Is more needed?
 

Del mar race#6

Number-1 Silver stetson man
Is a key pivotal factor in this race.
Long lay-off returne,s that go into oxygen debt late in there
return race especially in routes are very poor prospects to
improve on that come back race unless their was fighting
involved or massive class drops,without 4.5weeks to
5.5 weeks recoup time. That is why lines 3& down were
skipped as repeatable lines thus making him a non-
contender.
I am not quite sure why returners that go into oxygen
debt that fight usually dont regress.
I like to see soft paced returne,s that close sharply and
are not asked too much. Given 4-5 weeks than I will
consider superior lines deeper in its pp,s.
Thank,s for asking,and yes I always have more to devulge
when it comes to Sartin programs and matching,"EXTREMELY
FASCINATING" subject ,later Jeff K.

Ted, I'm with you. I didn't get it either.

I went to Google and checked "Linguistics", but I could locate anything there to help.

Thanks Jeff.

1. Can you please define your term: oxygen debt.

2. How does your explanation relate to, or give a clue to the race winner (#6 A Lil Dumaani)?

Ted

2nd off of lay-off,s
 

Overextension in a comeback race off of A 60+ day layoff,then a quick
2nd back raceback, in less 4 weeks is a big negative.
From what I have seen in the last 5,000+ similar scenarios,nationwide.
Number-1 silver stetson would have been the match-up pick but
his running lines that were superior to lil dumanis lines,were very unlikely
to be duplicated,hence Lil dumani was the match-up pick with the correct
early positional+velocity tendencies. Baffert knows better but the owner
was probably pushing him. Allways use what has worked for the last 1,000 + races that is why I scan all worked races and keep them on a hard disk.
One sure sign of a non winning capper is one that throws his work away
at the end of the day,unless you have a memory like that guy, that
was from Tulsa with the big cowboy hat.

Dam
 

Jeff, this is some great stuff. If possible could you do a race from Saratoga today and go over it horse by horse with the pp's included so we can print them out and follow aloang with you? This is good stuff.

Bob

Jeff I hope you are doing well today.
my name is Jim Vascoe,,and I saw you (or thought) you were using "The Hat" matchup,,,if you are I have some questions for you if you can spair the time.
Thanks in advance,
Jim Vascoe