Time for some help
 

Here are the past performances of a randomly picked horse

I have the config tap set to all default RDSS settings and am using Val 4 mode

This is for some one on one help I am offering to a RDSS user

The Track is PARX ( philly)
and its an open $5000 Claimer

Here are the PP's The top one is the original lines
Bottom is Adjusted

Step for me . Which pace line would you use ?

bump
 

There are no right / wrong answers

I have asked the person who asked for the help to
answer my questions I would like to work a typical race in question and answer steps

Bill I would say use the last race...
the others looks like his top races, but is he still in top condition??..

this horse has been consistent and in the money...but he also has been running @20 days apart from one to another...

Now hes off for 60 days after being claimed...questions???

mike i agree about the 60 days, but 30 day wait after a claim, similar class plus i think
PARX<----(notice new name drop:rolleyes:) was off most of aug.
but i would use either line 2-3. because of sr and split times.

too bad this horse scratched...would love to know how he would do

how smart is this trainer if he did know this before claim???

and now ..why did he scratch him....not ready???

too many question for me

Yes the horse has been off 60 days but he may have had some solid 5F workouts.
Using Bills model the unadjusted times for the Ist and 2nd calls fall into the ranges below for 6F.

Ist call : 21.1 - 22.4 , 2nd call: 44.1 - 45.3

This would eliminate line 1 which is too slow 22.9 - 46.3 (out of range).
So if you use line1 the horse cannot run to the projected times.

But if the horse had those 5F works then I would use line 2 because:

Line 2: 22.3 - 45.3 Is within the winners range for 6f and has a better SR than line3.

Line 2 is also a tick faster to the Ist call than line 3 (22.3 - 22.4)

However line 3 is faster to the 2nd call then line 2 (45.1 - 45.3)

But overall I would give line 2 the edge: faster to the first call and a higher SR.

Ernie

i placed the horse in my vir. stable. see where next time it runs.

I would take the last race. But there is no right or wrong, it is my personal feeling, that I should take the last race. :-)

I ran the race thru my Taulbot Pace Calc and the software picked the 5-30-10 paceline. Bill, in your post #2 you said "There are no right / wrong answers". Is that to mean that there is no best paceline to select? I ask this as I am in the process of reading everything I can in the selection of the best representative paceline. Thank you for offering your help, so very much appreciated! Best regards, Tom

Right or Wrong? How about Profit or Loss?
 

I can never understand why everyone has such a problem with line selection. Well, I take that back. I DO understand. It's the idea that "there are no rules". THAT is the single biggest problem. It leaves EVERYBODY out there wondering what line to pick and in the Sartin Methodology or any methodology where line selection is the heart and sole of the methodology, you BETTER HAVE SOME RULES! Without some kind of "rules" or "very strict guidelines", what you end up with is a methodology where you do "this" one time and you do "that" another time. There is no consistency. It's a recipe for disaster.

I have to laugh at the phrase “there is no right or wrong”. While one may subscribe to that line of thought, there is also the the thought, “you can either win or you can lose”.
It’s like playing Blackjack. How can you tell someone who consistently hits their “16” against the dealers “6” that what they are doing is wrong? It’s their money isn’t it? They can do whatever they want, right? But you know they will lose in the end.

My choice would be THE LAST LINE. Here’s the reason(s).

If you read through the follow ups, you will find many examples where "Doc" shows you his line selection process. You will see, that much more often than not, "Doc" was on line 1 or line 2.

Consider this, taken from a recent post by JeffH:
"I have read the followups, the paceline manual, and a bunch of threads regarding paceline selection. The paceline manual says to always use last race unless there's a valid reason not to (wrong surface, distance, class, etc.)."

This was taken from my response to the post by JeffH:

I got started with the Sartin Methodology about 25 years ago when the ONLY "guideline" for picking pace lines was "THE LAST LINE IS THE LINE UNLESS FOR SOME GOOD REASON YOU HAVE TO GO BACK". Now, the next thing was, how far do you go back? The answer was, to the VERY NEXT LINE. If for some GOOD REASON THAT LINE WAS NOT USUABLE, then you go BACK ONE LINE.

There was never anything that told you to start right off by picking pace line #10!
There was never anything that told you to bypass a good line in favor of a better line down the list!

The reason the last line is the line, is because it is the most recent piece of information on the horses current form.

I have found that the original "guidelines" have served me well right from the beginning.
Have I ever tinkered with line selection? Well, I'm human, so the answer is "yes". Have I ever found anything to be better than the original "guideline"? NO.

Personally, my line selection is always, LAST LINE IS THE LINE, UNLESS THERE IS A REASON TO GO BACK ONE LINE. This is coupled with my own "RULE" that I will not use any horse that hasn't run in the last 90 days. WHY? Because 95% of all winners have run a race in the last 90 days. I will not use any pace line that is more than 90 days old. WHY? Horses in training will generally run 3 to 5 races during that period of time. If you can't get a line for a horse during that time period over that number of races, perhaps it is time to THROW THAT HORSE OUT!

The largest percentage of winners come right off their last line, where the last line is applicable.
The next largest percentage of winners come from use of the second line back. The further back you have to go for a line, the lower the win percentage.