some from Sunshine Millions day
 

Entrants and first four entrants..

posts 5-6-7-8-9-
 

pps...

last horses...
 

pps...

The early contenders
 

4 E contenders...
I am going to use #11 Feel That Fire as the pace. This will eliminate the 10 whose only sprint is an E energy wise; eliminated Jessica the 4 who has no winning sprints shown, but who recently could not match the pace of the #11. The one Wildcat Heiress need open lengths and can't match the 11 and besides, the 11 can fight to maintain its advantage.

Lets see if anyone can catch the 11
 

Pressers and others...

the 6 has faded against a much slower pace, so out...
the 2 is a turfer that presses; may get a part, but not to win...
The 3 has recently run off the pace at 5th position, so keep (remember 23 had 4 E's here.
The 8 has a few against this pace that are promising, keep.

more others
 

horse 7 and 9;

The seven is prob ably the favorite and the 9 cant keep up with these. I think the big layoff and lack of sprinting recently makes this horse my place horse.

The line I chose for the 8 Aegean is a liftetime best with no other races at a track of significance I will discount this one. With the strong pace from the 11 my second horse is the three who should come from well off the pace. Amen Hallelujah may run these two down, but this is my value bet for this race.

Good luck to all,

Bill

Hi Bill-

Thanks for putting this race up. You put it out real nice for people to follow your analysis.

Hope you get a good result on this one!

Pete

Scratch the 6
 

The 6 has scratched. no biggee

My case against Amen Hallelujah
 

The 7 in this race is coming off a layoff after her last several were at route distances; On BC Day Switch was making the same distance move after 4 distance races, but had been racing regularly. If you look at Switch's adjusted SRs for the routes, none were competitive with the fresh sprinters that were capable of winning. The only sprints show an improving pattern from 83-87-91. Switch finished 2nd as the top APV horse (red dot on post #)

Amen has much the same pattern in its routes and a similar improving pattern in its sprints. This might just be a coincidence or it might be a pattern. Another factor here is that the race competition for Amen is most likely somewhat less quality than that which faced Switch.

In both cases if you discounted the recent routes and chose the best sprint line each horse was going to be competitive in its field.

We shall see...