new pace
 

MNR last year meet. A little study just for fun.

Pino,

The last 3 lines seem promising (overall net 29% ROI). As for the rest of the report, any chance of presenting it in a spreadsheet format? The columns and headings are quite misaligned and difficult to read.

Ted

new pace
 

mnr 2010 meet

Pino,

I did a bit of a mash-up of the 2 documents you posted, and rearranged a few rows. Is this information in this picture correct, and the explanations what you meant? If so, I can re-post the excel sheet this came from.

Ted

Attachment 22789

Here's the modified spreadsheet: Attachment 22791

Thanks Pino!

that's fine
txs

If I am understanding this right, you use NewPace to get the contenders then use the selected pacelines to split them?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave,
if the favorite is in the New Pace contenders I would make a 4 horses exacta box, otherwise is a pass. No pace line selection no handicapping, just bet what the New Pace give out.
Salutations,
Giuseppe

So, you're only betting when the favorite is included. What did the exactas pay where the favorite wasn't included? I understand that they hit less often, but at much better prices.

I use NewPace and I usually bet 3-4 horse exacta boxes when I do, but I do a little extra 'capping to eliminate some of those 436 races lost and ROI should go up.

I understand it's just a study, but seems like I would be stepping over dollars to pick up pennies.

Just my two pennies.:)

Chris

Chris,
the study won 34.88% of the races without handicapping. The idea was to find how many times the favorite was one of the contenders and how many times, won or placed.
I agree that with some handicapping ROI would likely improve. Here is a race where some handicapping would make you a winner.
#7 is the dominant horse and yet isn't one of the contenders. New Pace select the place horse and everybody when gaga after the #6 cause Deshawn Parker on the reins.

Here's a look at a new layout for the NewPace screen in RDSS, with a few updated rules. Pino is right on - the dominant early horse #7 deserves to be the E1 (with 70% of the top 2 early speed points). It sets the PoR itself (58, so no worries about it meeting the PoR) and NOT the Swing horse #10 with its 63 low (the Swing horse does not set the PoR, will not challenge for the lead - and this particular Swing horse certainly not!). Now we need one more Early horse, and we take the highest Hi SR of the remaining Early/Swing horse group - which is the #10 with its 84 high SR.

Voilà. 7 - 10. Win, Place, Exacta.

Attachment 22833

The above screen (the default sort order) is sorted by Early/Swing group then Hi SR. If you sort by Late group then Low SR, it looks like this:

Attachment 22834