Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Saturday 9/24- Woodbine's Ontario Derby

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Saturday 9/24- Woodbine's Ontario Derby - TM 102 Race Class

Here is Saturday's 8th race from Woodbine, The Ontario Derby for 3 yr olds.

9f on the Polytrack. Best of luck and good matching :)

Richie:

Is the 1 a known scratch or did you forget to load the PP's?

Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 73919)

Richie:

Is the 1 a known scratch or did you forget to load the PP's?

Bill

Hi Bill
I see the pps there but here they are again! :D Hope you are doing great man

I think the 9 is the FPLR, though not at today's distance or structure. Otherwise, it would be the 7

#9: 7f at 122.7+2.8L = 123.2+6.4*4= 148.8

#7: 142.9 + 6.4 = 149.3

#9 appears to be getting better and is only horse that wants lead;; held well on dirt in restricted 500K race. I chose base from 3rd back 47.7-112.4 which should leave plenty in reserve to beat these. Can finish in 148.8

The 7 at his best ran from 4th, then 3rd and might be right behind the 9 at top of stretch. Best time of 142.9+6.4 = 149.3. Can make up ground from 111.3 six furlong time

the only other horse for me is the 3, coming off the pace from 6th to finish in 142, which adjusts to 148.4. Been finishing up the track on turf and only shows one race on poly. has not been gaining positions on turf as well as lone poly try. Hmmmm.

My picks are 9 and 7 to win, and adding the 3 for exacta and beyond.

Good luck,

Bill

Good morning guys. My final OTE contenders are 1,3 and 7. I will take the 7 as my top pick.

The 7 and 1 are the horses to beat.
The value dictates the (7) as the lone bet.
Or you could bet both. I find no problem with that if you are the one who is doing the betting.
If the (1) wins you might get back $6.00 or $7.00 for a $4.00 bet.:confused:
Not much of a return but it sure beats losing. Then again you could lose 2 bets instead of 1 and be that much more behind.:(
Oh well.:D

This is an extremely competitive race.

Not only are the pace ratings too close to call, but you've also got to consider the dirt/poly difference. For example, #1 Moonshine Mullin annihilates this field if he runs as well as he did in either of his last two races. However, those were on dirt and his polytrack races, although impressive, aren't anywhere near as good as those.

Compound that with the fact that the horse is improving and you have a real head scratcher. Will he still run forward on poly even though he's better on dirt? Does he have a dirt preference? Or, is he improving regardless of surface?

I used his third race back, but is that really a representative paceline?

I left all the horses in the printout, even though I don't think #6 Nanaimo has a ghost of a chance.

This is only one horse that has a lot of question marks. Several others fall into the "huh?" category as well.

I won't bet this race, but if I had to use it in a Pick3 I'd choose #1, #7 and #8.

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RACE:  092408     DIST: -  9.0 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  WO 8th



NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#1 Moon    52.35   52.35   52.35   53.10   51.89   52.12

#2 Silv    52.14   53.10   51.19   52.34   51.06   51.60

#3 Derb    52.59   52.16   53.01   52.57   53.03   52.81

#4 Alph    52.32   52.22   52.41   53.21   51.86   52.09

#6 Nana    52.33   51.83   52.84   53.37   52.21   52.27

#7 Hipp    52.60   53.22   51.98   53.24   51.57   52.09

#8 Bowm    52.13   52.33   51.94   52.21   51.89   52.01

#9 Oh      52.34   52.12   52.56   52.53   52.45   52.39



                       



         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    52.83   54.91   53.86   53.22                  SC B/L

=====================================        =================

#2 Sil  52.83   53.63   49.29   53.10        #7 Hipp    0.00

#7 Hip  52.40   54.91   50.75   53.22        #2 Silv    0.55

#8 Bow  52.24   52.52   51.54   52.33        #1 Moon    3.85

#3 Der  52.20   52.10   53.86   52.16        #8 Bowm    3.95

#9 Oh   51.88   52.61   53.01   52.12        #4 Alph    4.45

#1 Moo  51.43   54.30   52.35   52.35        #3 Derb    4.69

#4 Alp  51.11   54.55   52.61   52.22        #9 Oh      4.88

#6 Nan  50.57   54.54   53.84   51.83        #6 Nana    6.17



                          

                            

                                    RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #7 Hip      1     1     6     2     5     4     7     1   67.89

  #3 Der      1     5     1     4     1     1     1     1   65.94

  #9 Oh       2     5     3     4     2     2     4     3   66.34

  #6 Nan      2     6     2     1     3     3     2     1   66.13

  #4 Alp      2     4     4     2     4     4     3     1   66.76

  #1 Moo      2     3     5     3     4     4     5     2   66.88

  #8 Bow      3     3     6     6     4     5     6     3   67.03

  #2 Sil      3     2     7     5     6     6     8     4   68.36