GapFire ROI Challenge - Contest - Jan 18 - Feb 26
 

Contest Rules
 

RULES & OBJECTIVES

OBJECTIVES

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Go here to record your Contest Picks:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/f...splay.php?f=72


Best of luck and skill to all Players!

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Hello Everyone,

I'd like to invite all Paceandcap members to join this contest. It has a slightly different format that promised to be a lot of fun.

I'd also like to thank Ted for his great support of this Contest Series.

All the best,

Kevin

Gapfire Contest Strategy?
 

Thanks Kevin for checking in, and good luck with the Contest. If anyone here uses the Gapfire figs, either alone or in concert with other tools, please feel free to comment about them here.

I am trying to come up with a Contest playing strategy which recognizes often limited time to handicap. I must handicap 20-30 races many days each week in the course of working on RDSS2, though most times it is either after the fact or at least not right at bet-time, which is when I prefer to bet when I am working seriously.

But in this contest, with up to 3 picks per day over 31 days, and no penalty to the bankroll for underperforming - there would seem to be no downside to at least picking 3 bets in a day that seem to be overlays and putting them in the Contest thread for that day. Especially since it can be a track of your choice, day or evening. (Note: this contrasts with the upcoming RDSS Sartin/Bradshaw Memorial Contest, where you may only bet a % or bankroll each day, up to 3 races/day, 30 races max including some mandatory Derby Prep Stakes).

My PAIHL teammates seem to have determined that I excel at dirt routes as a category ;), so I might use this contest to specialize in dirt routes at some of my favourite winter tracks.

Comments, advice?

Very best wishes to all!

Ted

Forgive me, but a few quick questions please ?

1. Is this where you use the best 30 wagers ,(which is also the minimum wagers needed to qualify, right?), out of a possible 93 wagers, yes or no?

2. Is this a contest where picking longshots will make you a winner or picking winners is what will make you a contender here, tough question I know, but ROI , to me is the "Return on Investment", so if you bet 30 times at 60.00, the one with thew highest return wins, so if 1 guys returns 150 on 60 with 12 winners and another returns 250 on 60 , but only won 6 races, this guy would win, yes or no.

3. If you wager everyday , would this lower your Investment part of the ROI, same as #1 question I guess, sorry

Again thanks all involved

patrick

I think the answer to #1 is no. You are looking for your return on a minimum of 30 races.

I'm with you on #2 and 3. It's return on investment, make more money than anyone else and spend less doing it. As to #3, playing more races INCREASES your investment (not lower), the return percentage would decrease due to spending more.

That's the way I see it.

If you can bet all 93 races and end up with the same winners and same roi if you just bet 30, then I should bet 3 races everyday.

I'm gonna try to make each pick count.

Chris

One thing I see is that since you can pick and post 1 race at a time, up to 1 minute before Official Off Time, you can watch the odds and possibly choose between, say, your Top 3, that 1 horse which is 'optimal' odds, for which you'll get Win and Place mutuel earnings.

I rarely bet only 1 horse, so perhaps preparing to bet 3 races per day and often going with your 2nd or 3rd best horse (depending on bet-time odds) will gradually accumulate sufficient mutuels to to make it worthwhile to bet rather more races than fewer races (i.e. 60-90 races total, rather than just the minimum).

Like Chris, I see making every bet count. It could be tough though, in that sometimes the 1 horse to pick is a horse you're pretty sure will not Win, but rather is a perfect counter-energy horse, and either overlooked at long odds or elevated due to extreme favouritism of another horse (and a horse you would naturally include in an exacta bet if that bet type were permitted in this contest).

Ted

Ted asked if anyone was using the Gap Fire numbers.
I have been using them in combination with RDSS & New Pace numbers. I was going to wait until I had at least 200 races before I listed my findings. But I would like to share what I have so far.
Many of you know that I have been in first place for the last couple of weeks in the Pic 4 contest at AQU. I have only used these numbers in combination at Aqu, so I do not know how they will hold up at other tracks.
In 141 races: 135 wins were in the top 4 ratings of at least one of these 3 ratings.
114wins .809 were rated on 2 or more of these 3 ratings.
I have been using these double rated horses in my pic 4 tickets and have hit several
times. Many other times I have had at least 3 winners on my tickets.
I have rarely bet Pic 3s or Pic 4s , I concentrate on win betting most of the time.
But after seeing what some of these pic 3 & 4s are paying, especially when 2 or 3 are short priced favorites are included in them I may start playing some of them.
I hope this info helps some of you. If nothing else it may help you to separate your final contenders. Dave Schwartz gave me this idea of combining 2 or 3 different methods in his workshop on using the double Monty.
Good luck to all and if you find another combination that improves this one : then share it with all of us.
God Bless,
rmath