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- - Longshots for a Contest, ?? (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8170)

Longshots for a Contest, ??

Okay, looking for a little help with my Gapfire ROI contest, I have found a few horse's from a few tracks and was wondering if anyone would like to look at them and evaluate them, it would be a good excersise if you got the time.

Aquduct

Race 2 #3 Percussion 12-1

Race 3 #2 Real Glory 12-1 **

Beulah

Race 1 #4 Rae of Son 10-1 **

Race 2 #5 Winged Warrior 8-1 **

Race 6 #5 Sheza runaway Star 10-1 *

Gulfstream

Race 6 #1 Rebecca Mia 20-1 **

Portland Meadows

Race 2 #5 Lei of Gold 10-1 **

Race 10 #5 Back Stage Booty 15-1 **

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 1 #3 Miss Mulligan 30-1 ***

Race 4 # 3 Lawyer Jen 15-1 **

Race 6 #10 Rose Brier 12-1 **

Just a few races to see if anything is worth playing, because with out some major payout's, like 1 100.00 horse, and then a 40.00, may be enough to get me there, or close enough, otherwise I can kiss the ROI Contest good bye, and I will keep plugging till the end, but was hoping for finding hidden jewels if they are there, instead of playing random 20-1 ML or 50-1 post time odds hoping for a prayer.

Thank y'all

Patrick

Hi Patrick,

I would love to help you but my recent intensive studies on value
dictates that the best results will be attained when one watches the odds on the tote board.
When you are seeking value at those big prices, expect to have protracted run outs. The higher your odds cut is, the longer losing streaks you will endure. It is not uncommon that one can lose 40 - 50 races in a row betting 10-1 shots or better. You must exercise extreme caution when playing this way. Your most frequent overlays should occur between 4-1 & 7-1 odds.
Your will hit a "bomb" infrequently. They are hard to find and harder to hit.

Today I played PRX real time with a friend and another member of this board and limited myself to just 3 bets. I won 2 of them at double figures. That was the 1st and 2nd race. I overlooked a $64.00 payer in the 4th.

If this game was easy every one would be a winner. In reality 3% can win long term.

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut (Post 78286)

Hi Patrick,

I would love to help you but my recent intensive studies on value
dictates that the best results will be attained when one watches the odds on the tote board.
When you are seeking value at those big prices, expect to have protracted run outs. The higher your odds cut is, the longer losing streaks you will endure. It is not uncommon that one can lose 40 - 50 races in a row betting 10-1 shots or better. You must exercise extreme caution when playing this way. Your most frequent overlays should occur between 4-1 & 7-1 odds.
Your will hit a "bomb" infrequently. They are hard to find and harder to hit.

Today I played PRX real time with a friend and another member of this board and limited my self to just 3 bets. I won 2 of them at double figures. That was the 1st and 2nd race. I overlooked a $64.00 payer in the 4th.

Thank you

This would be a tough way to play with real money, but for a contest it allows me a little more freedom to swing harder, thou it is also a great lesson to find value in certain races and tracks, this contest is awesome and reading your post's here and the help you've given , I am learning the angles and overlays that have a better chance for paying off than just plain old longshots, but instead finding value thru certain angle's and historic facts, man I better take a breath, and end this sentence. Wow , got carried away.

I have a very long way to go with this, but I am on the journey, and in a few years, patterns should become more easily spotted and value plays a little more valuable, or that is the goal anyway.

Thanks Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut (Post 78286)

Bill, your new screen name is BombsAwayBill!! Congrats on the GREAT value selections!! Keep on keepin on bro! :) Tom

Hi Bill
I sent you a email the other day I was wondering if you got it .
I sent it to the email address in your paceandcap members profile
Nice work at Parx !!

GS
Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 78293)

Hi Bill
I sent you a email the other day I was wondering if you got it .
I sent it to the email address in your paceandcap members profile
Nice work at Parx !!

GS
Bill

Hi Bill,

I never received it.
Please resend to partsnut@optonline.net

Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver (Post 78285)

Okay, looking for a little help with my Gapfire ROI contest, I have found a few horse's from a few tracks and was wondering if anyone would like to look at them and evaluate them, it would be a good excersise if you got the time.

Aquduct

Race 2 #3 Percussion 12-1 ran 2nd 10.60

Race 3 #2 Real Glory 12-1 ** out

Beulah

Race 1 #4 Rae of Son 10-1 ** won 7.20 2.80

Race 2 #5 Winged Warrior 8-1 **out

Race 6 #5 Sheza runaway Star 10-1 *2nd 3.40

Gulfstream

Race 6 #1 Rebecca Mia 20-1 **out

Portland Meadows

Race 2 #5 Lei of Gold 10-1 **out

Race 10 #5 Back Stage Booty 15-1 **race not run yet

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 1 #3 Miss Mulligan 30-1 ***out

Race 4 # 3 Lawyer Jen 15-1 **won 11.00 4.60

Race 6 #10 Rose Brier 12-1 **2nd 5.40

Just a few races to see if anything is worth playing, because with out some major payout's, like 1 100.00 horse, and then a 40.00, may be enough to get me there, or close enough, otherwise I can kiss the ROI Contest good bye, and I will keep plugging till the end, but was hoping for finding hidden jewels if they are there, instead of playing random 20-1 ML or 50-1 post time odds hoping for a prayer.

Thank y'all

Patrick

nothing spectactular