Ted Craven
 

Creating my thread for posting my June Contest picks (thread title = my Pace and Cap User Name).

Ted

BEL 11 (Belmont Stakes)

$50 Win #9 (Paynter)
$50 Place #4 (Atigun)

Screenshot and explanation to follow.

My RDSS settings are the Defaults, except DTV range: -15 ... +15

I started with the Best of last 3 Comparable Perceptor. I changed Union Rags selected line from 3rd to last. It was fair to forgive his trouble in his Derby race (his last) but the best of last 3 (his 3rd line from February) still put him behind Paynter and Atigun, and I need my favourites to rank as favourites on my betting line, otherwise, they can be bet against. Plus, I thought he was tired and could not run 12f. And it might have been true - another time - but not today! I think the analysis was correct enough, and I wasn't betting trifectas.

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Using Union Rags Best of Last 3 (line 3)

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PRX Race 6

$50 Win #1 #6

FL R6

$100 Place #6

Pacelines: BLT/C (Best of last 3 Perceptor). #1 looked like an Early, who would dominate the first 2 fractions, per the Segments screen.

Of the next 2, I judged the #6 to have returned and demonstrated better form over the sprint portion of its return route line - better than the last line form of the #4.

The Early #1 faded, and the 6-4 finished 1-2.

In practice, I bet the 1-6 to Win, and an Exacta dutch on 1-4-6.

Win.

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Pacelines: BLT/C (best of last three / comparable)

The favourite #2 looked right to win the race, but unbettable. The #6 as most opposite energy distribution (i.e. least early) looked like a good bet to finish in the money at very nice odds, thus a single Place bet. It ran out. Other favourite won.

In practice, I bet an Exacta dutch on 2-4-6.

Loss.

Attachment 27337
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June 21
WO Race 2
$40 Win $60 Place #6

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June 23
WO Race 4
$30 WP #2
$40 Win #6