Pace lines; best of last three comparable
 

Attachment 27173

2012-06-03 12:20:50 Bet* Churchill 6 Win/Place $2.00 2 $4.00 $60.60
2012-06-03 12:21:09 Bet* Churchill 6 Win $2.00 5

#2 horse, 4th line down; comparable, another turf line. #5 horse a poly surface, but I qualified him as being first time on the turf, in an average field, and a shipper to boot. This was a typical Mdn turf route, a prohibitive favorite #!, and as the second betting choice, a professional Mdn #7. Whom would you select?

I find these are the kinds of races you can make money with, so for $6.00 I became king for a day. The #2 horse won in a photo with $5, the top two public choices didn't break a sweat. Rdss was invaluable in pointing me to the #2 horse, Final odds on the two 20/1, the five off at a 9/1, either way I make money.

Though some initial judgements are required: had I used the last lime on the #1 horse he would have moved up on BL/BL, though in some respects, that line was an aberation - he 14 as lengths behind at the first call, and his low odds led me to select another line - a judgment yes, sometimes right, other times wrong.

Regards
Chris

Why do handicapper's waste their time handicapping without a doubt the worst bet in horse racing MSW on the Turf?

the paralysis of certainty
 

Now I don't what other handcappers do, however I've not been blessed with your certainty, so I do take a peek at them (Mdn on the T) every now and then, and sometimes they come in and my plunge ($6.00) is rewarded.

Regards,
chris

p.s., look forward to more of your comments.

What makes msw on the turf the worst bet in racing?

I play maidens very selectively because if I don't, they are a long term loss for me. MCL routes and turf routes are actually good races to find value. Lightly raced horses on the turf tend to confuse people. Trainers and breeding often can be deciding factors.

What I like about Chris is he identified some vulnerabilities and then identified potential value and took advantage. He could have easily lost the race but still it would have been the "right" bet. Good call on not using a line where the horse was 14 lengths back early.

Next time you see this opportunity, just do it again! Good work.

Just go through your normal handicapping routine for all races ...
if you get a horse in the 1st 2 slots and odds are there..

look further.....

Like Lou mentioned ..Try to keep records,if you hit a $20 horse but lose the next 13 ..what did you accomplish..

mike

First, that's your initial foray? That's hardly a sterling, positive contribution, is it?

Second, my ROI is over 1.5 for these races. For every two dollars bet I'm getting back $3+ That's not a waste of time. In fact it's my single, most profitable category.

Just because you can't do it doesn't mean others can't.

Give me some tips David! I have to be very selective or my ROI is negative in these races, really all maiden races. There are usually so many horses without turf lines, no routes, etc. and then throw in pedigree and trainer turf specialty, and I usually have a headache.

Very nice ROI.

Thanks, Lou.

I'm very selective about the races I bet.

I skip the MSW turf races which look unplayable. That's most of them.

And I only bet horses that have already run on the grass. I don't bet solely based on breeding or training information, although I do look at that data. I find T-Graph very helpful for that.

For example, I looked at all the MSW turf races in the last three days and only bet two of them. They both lost.

My win percentage is only 13% betting one horse to win even with passing all those iffy races.

What makes it worthwhile is the payoff. I'm always looking for a price.

It's not really a lot of extra work as most of these races you can pass in a matter of seconds.

I used to look for Hidden Energy and Sustained Pace, but after years of doing so I've found Sustained Pace by itself, assuming the horse is a qualified energy contender -- in the top five Total Energy -- works better than also looking at Hidden Energy.

My favorite program for this is Syn2.

Interesting David. Although I don't use it anymore, it was the 1st program I bought and used when I signed up with PIRCO in 1989.