Betting Examples Discussion
 

As often as I can I would like to post up some recent
Hit or Miss or what can be harmful betting stratagies, that i have seen posted
This is not to condem anyones success or failure
Just like in the follow up No names will be shown
Just what works and hopfully by showing bets
It will help us all LEARN TO WIN

Example 1
 

This is an example of a very popular bet here in the contest
The $25 W/P bet on 2 horses

In a recent posting using this bet the poster won and got $190
or a $90 profit
Attachment 27923

His bets were a horse with off odds of 9/2 and lets go with the ML of 10/1

Here are 4 looks at his bet using different methods

Attachment 27924

AAA is the actual bet and return on his bets
The 5 horse won and paid $11.00 and $4.80
The favorite @ 6/5 placed and paid $3.30
BBB is what his return would have been on a 50/50 Win only bet
CCC is what his return would have been on a 60/40 win bet
DDD is what his return would have been on a Sartin guidline bet
of a back up place bet on a high odds horse
EEE This again using a back up place bet with slightly higher than the win bet place bet

The total return for these bets is to the far right

Very well done Bill, but I just get from this , is that if you bet WIN only, yu will get much much more, for your buck. The other option is playing the place horse, but should be played only when the odds are high enough to make the place bet a nice payoff, and not be used on a 6/5 horse, is this what you are saying?

I make my bets and then go , most of the time, and come back and see how I did, and with odds at 3-1 , I hope they go up, but sometimes they go down, mostly go down, as I try to put the horse who has the best chance of winning, which we know could be a no paying horse, yet my reasoning, for my 25 w/p, was two things, basically....

1 Would be able to hit with 2 horses in 1 play.

2. If my higher odds horse comes 2nd then I stand a good chance of
breaking even on my wager, if possible. Or that was the thought, originally

Maybe next month I can try 2 50.00 win wagers, as quite a few people suggested, as this does make the handicapping a little bit tougher and then the hit rate would be more in tune to how Doc meant a 20 race cycle to be.


Patrick

betting
 

Nicely done, Bill. I think CCC is the way to go if one is to follow Sartin guidelines. One thing to keep in mind is that Howard was not always interested in maximum profit. By that I mean he was very aware of the psychological impact of losing and was the reason he recommended betting two horses to win. One of the reasons for betting the AAA method in this contest is to maximize the number of winning bets and thusly maximize the winning percentage.

Patrick
 

I understand about having little time and having to post races and then move on
with your schedule. There was a very good wagercaper/ client from England
He was featured often in the follow ups name Tim Brothers
He had no other choice ( back then ) then to bet off the morning line
I doubt that would work in todays internet and AWD late money plungers world.
Your hands are tied but I think all thing considered you do very well

Bill

Cb
 

Hello gandalph

CCC is a very good method. I feel that people who use the CCC method
thend to be very good handicappers who are very confident in there desisions.
They also want to maximize thier profits, These types and 1 horse betters are probably similar in ability.
CCC types still have a safety, that back up plan

As far as betting differently than you do in your daily wagering
That a individules decision . My felling is why would you think a $200 prize trumps
how you bet everyday Don't you want to win all the time ?

GS
Bill

save that place bet
 

Lets look at those Extra $20 Place bets

There might be a mistake in some peoples mind that I am scoring based on your hit rate. This is not true. Your score is ranked by the NetScore which in the contest is your bankroll x your hit rate. If this was the type of contest were you always have a starting bank win or lose like the $200 per day Paceadvantage pick 4 contest Then I can see were hits would be a plus
If you only got what you won
going for the hit rate idea would work.
However that is not the case. In this contest you are winning and missing
every race. when you bet $100 and win $50 you still lose $50 on your bankroll

Lets look at a pattern I often see people make

Here is my score as I start the day I am doing alright I have a small profit
in my bank roll
***
Attachment 27983
Now today I decide I want to bet two horses $50- $50. My two horses are close in odds between 5/2 and 9/2 .
Lets say I think that my hit rate is important so I decide to add a $20 place bet to the higher odds horse
After all I want that hit .
So I make my bet $40 Win / $40 win and then $20 place the 9/2 horse

A non contender wins the race but the $20 place bet comes in and pays
$5.00 I get my hit but I still lose $50 on my bankroll

Lets look at how this changes my score
Attachment 27984

My bankroll went down $50 my hit rate went up .18% but my net score only went up about $2.00

This WIN to the ego really was a loss in the bank roll
If your going to use the place pools Its important that you bet enough
to offset the lower payouts or else you will show no profit even when you think you win

GS
Bill

Bill V
 

I feel you are missing one point Bill.
Regardlees of your final bankroll If you hit 50% you get a free month of RDSS.
Since no money is actually changing hands when we place our bets I for one am not worried about anything but my final %.
Many of my contest bets have been on races that I would normally not bet anyway because of low odds.
rmath

Bad
 

I'm glad you "earned" your 1 month rdss extension
I thought we we trying to get more than that out of the contest

GS
Bill

contest
 

Bill, I agree that the purpose of the contest is to become better handicappers,and that is my goal also.
There are several prizes up for grabs each month and I am sure each one of us is trying to win the top prize, but only one can claim that elusive spot.
My goal each month is to do the best that I can and if at some point I see that I cannot win, then I set my goal on winning one of the other prizes.
This month I realized that the only prize I could possibly win was a free month of RDSS. If this makes me a BAD handicapper, then I am sorry and if you do not want me to enter next month please let me know.
I have always tried to share all my findings with everyone so as to help others become better handicappers.
My point in the previous post was probably worded wrongly, and if so I apologize.
I wish you and all the contestants best of luck.