Picking Contenders & Pacelines
 

Here’s a little exercise for everyone.

I am posting a race from the follow ups. It is not marked up in any way. The idea here is for you to look at the horses and become familiar with them.

Look at their races and try to determine which horses are the real contenders and the reason why they are real contenders. You can use any tools you have as long as you don’t use a computer. THAT would defeat the purpose.

WHAT TOOLS ARE THEY? (Ah, “the basics”!!)
Take a piece of paper and for each horse mark down if you think they are “early”, “presser” or “sustained”. If you think the horse has no discernible form, mark that down too.
Pick what you think is an appropriate paceline.
If you can calculate APV, do that.
If you can attempt to determine the 2nd call time, do that.
Look at the tracks where the horse has been running and consider the track it is running at today. Do you think it can compete at today’s track?
Try to identify the horse(s) you think will not win.
When you get done, look at what you have and try to determine how you think the race will run and which horse(s) you think have the best chance of winning.
In a couple of days I will post what the follow ups had to say about each horse along with the “marked up” version of the race as well as the results. Compare what you thought about each horse to what the follow up says. See if you could spot the winner just from this exercise. The first thing I’m posting is what the follow up said PRE-race and then the race itself.

Teaching
 

This will be the place were lessons, questions, answers and example races will be posted

I want to make a Teaching Thread were post like FTL's will appear in one area, rather than muck up each persons picks thread

Bill

Dates
 

Hi FTL

I will give it my best. Its tough for me as I am not used to the racing form
I don't see the date of the race but it looks like all the race are recent
enough

also I have to cheat and I will use my old energy program to
figure the apv and class

Thanks this will be fun
Bill

Sorry, Bill and all. My mistake. The date of the race is JUNE 1, 1990.

The instructions from the follow up were to NOT use a computer. Not everyone has an old ENERGY program, so it wouldn't be fair to those who do not. Like I wrote in my post..."IF" you know how to figure APV, then do it.

Everyone do the best they can. In 1990 the Racing Form is all there was. The idea is to analyze the race as best you can using visual information. That is the reason for the NO COMPUTER guideline.

Also, in retrospect, I think my timing here was bad, with the Breeders Cup coming up on Friday and Saturday. I will wait until Monday to put up the next post and allow everyone to concentrate on the Breeders Cup races. I know these races are important to the contest.

Alright. I'm a day early.
 

Here's what the follow up had to say.
Attachment 31520

Attachment 31521

Attachment 31522

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Attachment 31524


How did YOU make out?
Were you able to isolate the winner?
This is all good advice.
If it wasn't, it wouldn't be in the follow up!

Next up, the second race in this daily double (of sorts). It gets more difficult now.

Those would have been my two horses to bet.


Actually might have leaned more to Chicken Dinner as 2 races back
he was coming out of the fastest race by far.Something that the
Hat has preached about horses coming out of the fastest races.

FTL,

None of my buisness but afraid your posts will be hidden here and you
would be better off having your own thread in the handicapping discussion
section.

hard
 

Thanks FTL

I found this one to be hard only because I'm so used to the RDSS
PP's. Its almost like learning a new language. I saw the lone early
but thats about as far as I could get

Hope to do better next race
Bill

Allow me to use another 'hatism".

HORSE RACING IS AN EASY GAME. WHEN THE GATES OPEN ONE HORSE GETS THE LEAD, IF NO OTHER HORSE CAN PASS IT, IT WINS!

This is the point of this exercise. To look at each horse in the race and determine their running style by labeling them with an E, P or S (and EP,SP). By doing this, you will find the mixture of early runners, pressers and sustained (closers) runners. When you find just one E runner with the rest of the horses being S runners, there is a clear edge to the E runner, as long as it is currently fit, which this example shows it was.

One of these S runners may be coming out of the fastest race, but that in itself will not make it the winner. "S" type horses need a pace to run at. This was the other point of this exercise. The 3/4 time used was 111.3. Take note that the actual 3/4 time of the race was 113.1, so there certainly wasn't as much pace for the "S" horses to run at. That is the reason this "E" runner was able to go wire to wire.

I see there are several posts following the teaching example, but I want to be honest with myself here and do this exercise & post whatever I come up with. I’ll be using the concepts that I am familiar with, which are the 0,+ & (+) (albeit there appears to be varying definitions of exactly where the cut off lies between each, back to guidelines & no rules!) & what I have gathered from Richie’s Match Up Thread. This is typed in word & will be posted when I'm done.

I’m afraid I have no idea how to calculate APV, or anything else for that matter. OK, let’s do this!

Cozy Road. Running Style U. Initial thoughts are this horse like to start far back & then drift further away from the pace. Without looking at any other horses already looks to have no chance unless racing against Shetland ponies.

To Be Impressive. Running Style EP likes to lead if pace isn’t sub 22:00 in sprints. Candidate to set pace.

No Se Porque. Running Style S. Late swooper.

Situada. All turf form. Running Style. Slight evidence of S, apart from that U. As the only running style is very late, if at all, this turf runner most probably doesn’t have the credentials to make the transition to dirt racing where more evidence of being involved early would be to it’s advantage.

Lap of Luxury. Running Style S. Last 3 races it’s best BL being 5 lengths.

Chicken Dinner. Running Style S. Again, getting beaten by fair distances.

Now for paceline selection. There is only one horse likely to set the pace here with the rest being Sustained types. This is already screaming out To Be Impressive as having a really good shout here. Will select the POR from one of his recent line & take it from there (going to use horses initials now to make it easier):

TBI – 23rd May 46:3 1:11:3 1:45 1-1.5 1-3 1-4 1-0.5
(the bold figure above being the BL of course)

CR – on 15th Mar 90 & 1st of May 90 faced similar pace & was destroyed both times. Out.

NSP – 23rd May Tandem with TBI beaten by 8L. Out as there is no reason for the pace set to be different as it is highly likely the same horse sets the pace here.

S – as stated, I just can see how this gets involved, but will look at it’s line from 30th Mar which had a SR of 85.

47:4 1:11:4 1:43:1 9-11 10-11 10-11 9-10.5

If attempting to keep pace with the 46:3 will be forced to run 6 lengths faster than in this race, plus the 10.5L to make up at the end. Don’t think so.

LOL – In tandem with TBI on 23rd May & beaten 5L. Out with same pacemaker.

CD – Line 2 has SR of 80 & very similar pace.

46:1 1:11:1 1:42:4 6-5.75 3-2.5 2-4 2-6

Now this is an interesting horse. Power move gaining position & lengths against a pace 2 lengths faster over the 46:1 & 1:11:1.

OK, I’m taking TBI to lead all the way round & get mugged late by CD. Hopefully the prices are worth it & I could have backed both, but my call here is CD to win in a race with essentially two contenders.

OK, will copy & paste this in now & then check the result!