Anybody looking at Tampa March 7, 2014 - Races 1 & 7
 

Would be interested in an opinion on Tampas first. The favourite #1 is dropping way down and going back on dirt. I took him out as no match for the fulcrum pace of #3. My contenders are 5,3,6. If the 1 fires I'm dead. Any thoughts?

Pook

Oh well….I hung it out there and what I suspected might happen, did happen. That #1 wasn't (early) recent enough for me. But wait….oh yeah, there is another race 18 minutes away.

Pook

Here's a fun picture! Using EVERY one of that horse's last 10 lines, 9 of them are better than EVERYBODY else's recent best performances :eek:

Together with the class drop and the 1/2 odds, that's as good a measure as I can think of to PASS the race, versus betting against the favourite ...

Right about the next 18 minutes part!

Ted

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Good point Ted……..where were you 10 minutes before the race?

learning
 

All kidding aside, learning about horses like this one the Ted points out is not a

"tip" Its a big step in learning to win at a worthwhile level. If your betting
to show off to your buds then play around and look for "tips" before the race.
If you are serious about making a good profit I suggest reading as much as you can about the art of passing races or using "other pools"


Good Skill
Bill

Bill

I'm new to the site and just thought I'd see who was out there and to see how getting a conversation going about a race worked. I'm not looking for tips or anything.

Pook

Nice
 

Thanks Pook
Welcome to pace and cap. Good to see you here

Bill


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That's pretty cool Ted.

Tam r7
 

Beautiful opportunity to bet against the #8 (IMO). What will happen to the #8 when it is asked to run against the pace of 22.8 45.4 which the #6 can set all the time?

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Plus, all those other earlies chasing him does not help.

Ted

OK - just my opinion!

#8 wins anyway.

FWIW, and related to Pook's questions in another thread about when to PASS races (i.e. pass on the favourite): I saw weakness in the odds-on favourite here:

1. was not ranked far and above (on BL) the next tier horse
2. was an Early (arguably a Fighter) who had not shown he could win against fractions to be set by another horse (#6); AND an Early among 4 or 5 other earlies!
3. the Other Than Earlies (7-4-3) don't look so bad - even the Early #1 can stay out of the suicide duel for the lead
4. was only going to pay (did pay) $3.80 if I call it right. Meh ...

If that's not an opportunity - I am very willing to learn more! It's an example of a race I want to be in: 8+ runners, older horses, some 'defects' to a top ranked odds-on favourite = odds on everyone else are higher. Lose I may (and did) - but I want my fair share of the mutuels when these favourites lose.

FWIW.

Ted