10/31 BC Sprint
 

Here are the PP's for the sprint, the best of the best going 6F....

Ooops, make that 11/1 BC Sprint......the race is on Saturday....

I see the following horses as early or used to be early and cannot get on top of their fractions any longer 1,5,10,11,12,13,14,15, & 16 therefore with that many early I believe the race will run other than early and to account for all the earlies I am looking for a little bit deeper closer to come off the pace of 5th or 6th or maybe 7th so my choice will be 4 & 6 based on other than early and class. Not sure about any scratches at this point but since I am doing this on Thursday those are my two picks.

SA 10 Nov 01
 

For my initial sort I looked at every tandem race and made Non-Contenders of the slow tandems and horses that lost to others in this race.

Attachment 38382

I notice three things right away.

6 Rich T is positioned 5th behind 5 and shows two power moves 2nd to Str and Str to Fin.

12 Fast A is only Early to actually get a lead and is also FPLR.

4 Secret is ML favorite and is Non-Contender.

For Pace of Race I will use 4 Secret because he ran exact times last two out over SA at today's distance.

22 44.3 55.9 1:08

Tossing all Earlies leaves 2 5 6 14.

14 is out for being a tic slower over KEE than 13 which has already been thrown.


Matching 2 and 5 has 5 Privat closest to the fastest pace up front. Since today's pace is slower, 5 Privat will have more energy left for the end of the race and still be positioned just behind the lead bunch.

Attachment 38383

Final two contenders are 6 Rich T and 5 Privat

Looking Early

The also eligibles are out of the sprint; #15 and #16

Needless to say, this is a tough race.

It looks like the 11, 12, and 13 will vie for the lead. The 12 and 13 look like they can cut a 21.4 so I'm going to use the SA sprint championship as the projected pace:

21.4 44.1 55.2 1:07.3

I think the horse will go OTE.

Here are the notables in the field I think have a chance:

4: Contender off sprint championship. Good power moves.
6: Last at 1st call in only north american race. Tracker in Europe. Contender.
8: Mid position S type 3 and 5 races back. SAR and BEL are a little slower. Huge internal fractions. Contender.
10: Too early
11: Too early. No fight.
14: Way back.

I'm going to pick 2 horses here. Will toss the 4. He won it last year and may be the favorite. Will use the 6 and 8 with the caveat that the 3 might do something off very fast 5f grass races in Europe.

Tim

You said it Tim, VERY tough....I have this going OTE too, and I've narrowed it to 6-2-7 for my final contender mix...

I was concerned about the 3 also. Why would her people enter a 3yo girl turf horse against older boy dirt 6f horses just come in last at 30 to 1? Looks like a dumb move on paper. But they wouldn't put an entry like that unless they intend to win, no?

My Winning Group:
1/4/7/12/13

Todays Projected Pace:
21.7/44.3

Early Scenario:
I see half Earlies and half OTE's in this race. With no absolute (needs the lead) to win. Even the 12 can break 5th and win. So I will go Early.

Tandems:
13 has beat 7 three times (7 demoted)
4 beaten 1.8 lengths by non-contender 6 (4 demoted)
1 beaten 2 lengths by non-contender 10 (1 demoted)

Conclusion:
Bet (12 and 13) at good prices for the Win.

Pook

Pook, I like it!!!!