Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
03-06-2012, 03:35 AM
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Replies: 41
Views: 34,630
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
03-03-2012, 04:29 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 7,397
Value handicapping?
Hi Bill,
I was looking at these two winners, one of which I had, and wonder if your method is at all similar to the way I've been playing for years - just look for value. When you say 'gaps' I'm...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-25-2012, 06:58 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 34,630
Non-correlated?
Hi Ernie,
I'm kind of surprised by what you say here, because this is just the kind of thing I was looking for in NP and never found. As we know th E1 horse, the one you are talking about does...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-08-2012, 03:31 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
Thanks, Bill
Hi Bill,
Took me a while to realize that my original 'thank you' post here got busted. So I thought I would once again say thank you for the support for me you've expressed here. I also hope P&C...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-06-2012, 11:48 PM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
Typical performance
Hi Pino,
Thanks very much for posting this TAM summary. I make the ROI from this to be .823 - pretty typical of what NP does in this odds range (remember Mike's provisional summary of a group of...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-02-2012, 09:28 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Can you help?
Hi Barb,
Congratulations on your success with Dorian's method. As you can tell, if you've been reading this thread, you may be the only one here who understands how it works. I know I've had a...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-02-2012, 04:26 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Look below
Hi Jeff,
I don't post samples, mostly because I don't like to emphasize the importance of one race - the only thing that matters is the long term. So for now, let's just use the race Bill L....
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-02-2012, 03:35 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
NP use still cloudy
Hi DM,
You claim that you're only using the 'range' feature of NP, but the example you cite uses the same criteria that NP would have used to pick a contender.
And of course, the non-contender...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-01-2012, 09:23 PM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
I'm not holding my breath
Hi Mike,
I think Ted was a bit overly optimistic that there would be much research done on this product. NP has been out for nearly a year now - long enough for most users to realize that it's...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-01-2012, 12:55 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
Maybe every hundred
Hi Rich,
Thanks for this update, but I think an update every one or two hundred races would be sufficient. My feeling is that the variance of NP's intra-track hit rate, as opposed to the...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-01-2012, 12:18 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Standard Sartin
Hi Jeff,
My contender selection is basically the same as my paceline selection. As I've written about a few time, I use the lines of the horses with the highest TEs within the last 100 days. This...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
02-01-2012, 12:06 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Clarity on NP
Hi DM,
I think I'm beginning to get a clearer idea of what you're saying now, but you don't make it easy. What you say about the way you eliminate obvious throwouts and use RDSS is clear, and...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-31-2012, 02:33 AM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Still doesn't make sense
DM,
What you say here seems to contradict a number of your handicapping examples in this thread. You open many of the with "a,b,c,d, horses out by NP elimination". So you begin by eliminating...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-30-2012, 11:30 PM
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Replies: 224
Views: 84,463
Your method seems random
Hi DM,
I have to admit that most of what you've written is this thread doesn't seem to hold together. First, the 95% confidence interval is a fairly useless way to measure the value of a horse's...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-27-2012, 06:28 PM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
Much thanks
Hi Rich,
Thanks very much, this is exactly what I was looking for, and the inclusion of maidens or races with FTS is irrelevant. I think this should be useful to any paceandcap clients who are...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-26-2012, 11:28 PM
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Replies: 22
Views: 17,154
New Pace performance request
I know that a number of people here have been using New Pace on various tracks, and some, like Mike Sal, have been posting results for some of them. I was wondering if anyone else has compiled any NP...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-26-2012, 02:21 AM
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Replies: 143
Views: 40,656
Looks promising
Hi Mike,
As you say, exactas look like a good direction to go in. Also, although NP hits at slightly above average here, the public is underbetting NP favorites. Useful information.
Thanks...
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Forum: General Discussion
01-21-2012, 06:13 PM
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Replies: 51
Views: 24,334
Best wishes
Hi Bill,
Very sorry to hear about your health issues, and very best wishes for a speedy recovery. Even though we've never met, it's clear that you're a great person, and also someone who is much...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-21-2012, 06:02 PM
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Replies: 143
Views: 40,656
Actual loss is even worse
Hi Mike,
Sorry I haven't posted much here, but I've been somewhat tied up lately. I don't know if you saw my post on the analysis of NP higher-odds winners from Bill Lyster's 507-race survey, but...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-12-2012, 10:52 PM
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Replies: 143
Views: 40,656
Comments
Hi Mike,
Thanks for your continuing work with NP. I had a chance to look at PARX, but not yet at TAM. Obviously, it's continuing to be a tough place for NP to succeed. If we figure that, for NP...
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Forum: General Discussion
01-07-2012, 07:46 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 2,286
Thanks, Ted
Hi Ted,
I was taking a look at Bill's survey, and this is what provoked my question. I did a comparison of Adj. SR with TE, but not look at the results for the straight SR. I'll go back and take a...
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Forum: General Discussion
01-05-2012, 11:44 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 2,286
New Pace question for Ted
If someone else can answer my question that would be great, but I mentioned Ted because I believe he'll probably know the answer. As far as the way NP uses RDSS figures, I just wanted to know whether...
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Forum: RDSS2 / FAQ's
01-05-2012, 05:50 AM
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Replies: 48
Views: 34,536
Still confused
Hi Rich,
Got to admit this made me scratch my head somewhat. I can understand the idea of substituting (which is the same thing as the testing you describe) an NP horse for #3 V/DC - but how much...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-05-2012, 02:51 AM
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Replies: 143
Views: 40,656
Agree
Hi Mike,
Sounds good. Re exactas, these are some of the things I've been thinking about. I don't know how accurate this is, but NP seems to me to have performed better, in terms of ROI, at smaller...
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Forum: Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
01-04-2012, 03:05 AM
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Replies: 143
Views: 40,656
Hi Mike,
Hope you and your family had a...
Hi Mike,
Hope you and your family had a great holiday season. Just wanted to note your change in template here - using $2 bets and mutuel prices, and featuring only winners. I'll try to look at...
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