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The 8 horse.
As for me, my main objective was the “win”, i wasn’t handicapping vertically in this race. The 8 horse had a few things going for him. He was sniffing in his last two Allowance races and was dropping back down to a suitable class level today. The horse never finished out of the money in consecutive races. The horse had the best “Total Energy” rating of the field, but could he reproduce that today?
Having said all that, there were a few things that bothered me about this horse. The 8 seems to give a peak effort every 4 starts, with an adjusted speed rating of 80 to 84 in those starts. The horse ran a peak effort 2 starts ago and more than likely would run somewhere in the neighborhood of a 78 today (which wouldn’t be enough for the win). The horse seems to be at his best in 5F races, if you look at lines 2-6-10 from the 8 horse, he made up ground in all those starts in the stretch, whereas in his 6F or longer races, he lost ground in the stretch in all of those starts. In my opinion the horse should fade today, that’s why i mentioned that the distance does not suit this horse, it was a judgement call, sometimes you’re right, and sometimes you’re a donkey.
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