Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

PeteC · 02-06-2016, 10:46 PM

Earlies: I looked at the 1,9 and 10. The 1 and 10 are shippers which complicates it for me. They both seem faster than the 9 though, so I’m throwing out the 9. The 1 needs an open lead while the 10 has shown the ability to pass horses and comes off a 2-call fighting effort against a very fast pace.
Projected Pace: Tricky again because my fastest earlies are shippers. The 12 was relatively close to a 22.3 46 last time at TP so I’ll use that as my pace.
#1: Needs the lead and shouldn’t get it against the faster 10…OUT
#2: Comes off a win against FPLR at TP, contender
#3: P/S finished third against today’s POR, beaten by the 12 in that race….OUT
#4: Sus..3rd in a much slower race last time. Line 2 beaten badly in the POR tandem…OUT
#6: 2nd in a slower race and only other sprint wasn’t much at Pid…OUT
#9: Slow early…OUT
#10: Early fighter in fast time last out at HAW….I’m not experienced with Haw to TP shippers, but at least this horse seems a bit versatile. Has passed horses and held position against quick paces….Contender
#11: Sus…with ugly sprint lines…OUT
#12: P/S 2nd against todays pace last out with a nice power move. Won against a faster pace in line 2 too.

I’m down to the 2,10 and 12…I’m going with early in this race, taking the 10 to win.

02-06-2016, 10:46 PM	#19
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Turfway Earlies: I looked at the 1,9 and 10. The 1 and 10 are shippers which complicates it for me. They both seem faster than the 9 though, so I’m throwing out the 9. The 1 needs an open lead while the 10 has shown the ability to pass horses and comes off a 2-call fighting effort against a very fast pace. Projected Pace: Tricky again because my fastest earlies are shippers. The 12 was relatively close to a 22.3 46 last time at TP so I’ll use that as my pace. #1: Needs the lead and shouldn’t get it against the faster 10…OUT #2: Comes off a win against FPLR at TP, contender #3: P/S finished third against today’s POR, beaten by the 12 in that race….OUT #4: Sus..3rd in a much slower race last time. Line 2 beaten badly in the POR tandem…OUT #6: 2nd in a slower race and only other sprint wasn’t much at Pid…OUT #9: Slow early…OUT #10: Early fighter in fast time last out at HAW….I’m not experienced with Haw to TP shippers, but at least this horse seems a bit versatile. Has passed horses and held position against quick paces….Contender #11: Sus…with ugly sprint lines…OUT #12: P/S 2nd against todays pace last out with a nice power move. Won against a faster pace in line 2 too. I’m down to the 2,10 and 12…I’m going with early in this race, taking the 10 to win.