Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin
What is your approach to picking pace lines (if that is OK to ask)?
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Before using RDSS, I used the methodology from Michael Pizzolla's book, Handicapping Magic. This is a non-computerized method based on pace line selection. I found his methods to transfer well to RDSS.
Pizzolla's basic rule for pace line selection is to always use the most recent race unless there is a good reason not to. The major reasons include:
1. a negative layoff pattern
2. negative surface (e.g., turf vs. dirt, off track, etc.)
3. negative structure (e.g., sprint vs. route, 1 turn vs. 2 turn, etc.)
4. trouble line in last race
5. last race was at too high a class level, dropping back today
If there is a good reason not to use the most recent race, use the 2nd most recent. If there is a good reason not to use that race, go back another race. If there is a good reason not to use that race, the horse is probably a non-contender, unless it shows some class and is returning to conditions where it has won in the past.