Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 03-11-2016, 10:08 AM

Half the battle is proper wagering and getting out what you can. While I will take 5-2 on a horse I'm a two horse better and the low odds on the # 6 prevented that, I would have to bet 70% on the 6 & 30% on the 5. That and the payoff wasn't worth the risk. Therefore the ex. was the option. I eliminated the 5 & 6 and 6 & 5 combination at 4 minutes to post as they still were too low a payoff. $16 & $14. You can't put say $12 in and make money on these type payoffs. They both ended up going off at $14 I frequently do this and you would be amazed how often the top two horses don't finish one two.
I biggest problem was separating the 5 & 6 as they towered above the field considering everything. I figured the # 1 to route and you can get that from the early late graph that the horse can rate. However in the line I used(L 4) was at 7 F and he was decelerating. Even through he can rate we don't know if he can get the distance and still must prove it, advantage proven routers. We also don't know with this horse where he may start to decelerate or more important how fast. Many times they can hold on for 2 or 3rd. Note: I didn't play the Trifecta as I've gotten away from them as anything can get 3rd. Ex. & DD are easier to hit.
Mitch44

03-11-2016, 10:08 AM	#14
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Half the battle is proper wagering and getting out what you can. While I will take 5-2 on a horse I'm a two horse better and the low odds on the # 6 prevented that, I would have to bet 70% on the 6 & 30% on the 5. That and the payoff wasn't worth the risk. Therefore the ex. was the option. I eliminated the 5 & 6 and 6 & 5 combination at 4 minutes to post as they still were too low a payoff. $16 & $14. You can't put say $12 in and make money on these type payoffs. They both ended up going off at $14 I frequently do this and you would be amazed how often the top two horses don't finish one two. I biggest problem was separating the 5 & 6 as they towered above the field considering everything. I figured the # 1 to route and you can get that from the early late graph that the horse can rate. However in the line I used(L 4) was at 7 F and he was decelerating. Even through he can rate we don't know if he can get the distance and still must prove it, advantage proven routers. We also don't know with this horse where he may start to decelerate or more important how fast. Many times they can hold on for 2 or 3rd. Note: I didn't play the Trifecta as I've gotten away from them as anything can get 3rd. Ex. & DD are easier to hit. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-11-2016 at 10:12 AM.