Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 03-28-2016, 09:11 AM

The information can be gathered much more quickly looking at total energy which is already given for every race. After going from bottom to top then do it again by putting it in context with todays conditions of surface and distance. In fact take those two cards that you did and try it and make a comparison.

I'm not saying what your doing is wrong, it was definitely a proven technique from the past, if it works for you and your comfortable with it then use it. Its just that there are better and quicker tools available to achieve the same results. This even gets horses who are out of the money E.g. of their last race and the race looks ugly but the horse may have matched or was very close to its best race. A change of dis.,sur.,a drop down in class, or a easier pace of the race and the result is a good payoff. Even the "Doc" said that finish positions and beaten lengths can be deceiving, its how the horse ran and how against the pace of the race.

Myself I believe the time can be better spent analyzing the top contenders then the old approach. Handicappers become figure blind. Their blinded by total energy or BL/BL as examples and fail to examine their top contenders and do a complete analysis. E.g. You have three horses that are all rated with a CPR 170 or total energy of 165. These horses are not equal when put in context say for distance. If one is taken from 6 F line because that's all the horse has in its PP and today is a route he's at a huge disadvantage. Proven at the distance trump's (card game word) this horse, even more so if it was decelerating in the 3rd FR. Even router's who have identical 3rd FR and total energy. if todays dis. is 9F and one's race was at 8.5 and the other say 9 F.,advantage to the 9F because he has proven the dis. and their 3rd Fr are the same. We don't know where deceleration will take place with the 8.5 horse and the other has proven it. Context and analyzing are keys to success and most become blinded by numbers.

Imagine if we never progressed. We would be doing all this with pen and paper. A tough learning curve for me was the event and progress of computers. What a game changer! Adapt or perish.

As I said if it works for you terrific, go with it. good luck and skill.
Mitch44

03-28-2016, 09:11 AM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	The information can be gathered much more quickly looking at total energy which is already given for every race. After going from bottom to top then do it again by putting it in context with todays conditions of surface and distance. In fact take those two cards that you did and try it and make a comparison. I'm not saying what your doing is wrong, it was definitely a proven technique from the past, if it works for you and your comfortable with it then use it. Its just that there are better and quicker tools available to achieve the same results. This even gets horses who are out of the money E.g. of their last race and the race looks ugly but the horse may have matched or was very close to its best race. A change of dis.,sur.,a drop down in class, or a easier pace of the race and the result is a good payoff. Even the "Doc" said that finish positions and beaten lengths can be deceiving, its how the horse ran and how against the pace of the race. Myself I believe the time can be better spent analyzing the top contenders then the old approach. Handicappers become figure blind. Their blinded by total energy or BL/BL as examples and fail to examine their top contenders and do a complete analysis. E.g. You have three horses that are all rated with a CPR 170 or total energy of 165. These horses are not equal when put in context say for distance. If one is taken from 6 F line because that's all the horse has in its PP and today is a route he's at a huge disadvantage. Proven at the distance trump's (card game word) this horse, even more so if it was decelerating in the 3rd FR. Even router's who have identical 3rd FR and total energy. if todays dis. is 9F and one's race was at 8.5 and the other say 9 F.,advantage to the 9F because he has proven the dis. and their 3rd Fr are the same. We don't know where deceleration will take place with the 8.5 horse and the other has proven it. Context and analyzing are keys to success and most become blinded by numbers. Imagine if we never progressed. We would be doing all this with pen and paper. A tough learning curve for me was the event and progress of computers. What a game changer! Adapt or perish. As I said if it works for you terrific, go with it. good luck and skill. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-28-2016 at 09:14 AM.