Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - The most important thing in my handicapping

Mark · 04-09-2016, 12:11 AM

You are a Bradshaw devotee, I believe. So I think we all start at the same place. Who's going to get the lead. Once I am satisfied with a pace projection and the individual horse's Running Styles, I select lines as close to that 1st Call as I can where the horse employs his normal running style. I work RAW mostly but avoid obvious aberrant lines. If I do find a line deeper in the PPs then there has to be a reason the horse is running poorly lately. Most often this is an extended layoff with a race or two since return. I am pretty selective. Although the race Bill posted the other day to me was fairly straight forward, I really felt that the guys that restrict themselves to a line in the last 3 do themselves a great disservice. The #3 horse had run well on dirt at Hastings and on Poly at GG. He just wasn't a 6.5f horse but most importantly he could run of the pace and with the 4 Early horses at 6/1 I used the 5f GG win. The race dictated it. And that is what I think happens most often, almost subconsciously. If your visualization is correct and you are confident in the pace scenario and composition of the field, you know where to go. I reread something lately on the Hat Check blog. Richie explained that the "Hat" didn't pick pacelines, he picked horses. Once he saw what the race was he knew what Running style would win. I haven't reached that level yet and I still rely heavily on the Energy screen especially when I variegate OTE but I have only been studying The Match Up seriously for two years. Don't get me wrong I have been at this game a long time, I bought the old Red Sartin published Match Up manual and all his books and used AODDS 98 for quite awhile. It wasn't until I found this website and the Hat Check Blog that I was able to assimilate his teachings and technique.
Don't feel bad, Jim was so bad at exactas that they named a wager after him, first and third, the Hatinella.

04-09-2016, 12:11 AM	#21
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Methods You are a Bradshaw devotee, I believe. So I think we all start at the same place. Who's going to get the lead. Once I am satisfied with a pace projection and the individual horse's Running Styles, I select lines as close to that 1st Call as I can where the horse employs his normal running style. I work RAW mostly but avoid obvious aberrant lines. If I do find a line deeper in the PPs then there has to be a reason the horse is running poorly lately. Most often this is an extended layoff with a race or two since return. I am pretty selective. Although the race Bill posted the other day to me was fairly straight forward, I really felt that the guys that restrict themselves to a line in the last 3 do themselves a great disservice. The #3 horse had run well on dirt at Hastings and on Poly at GG. He just wasn't a 6.5f horse but most importantly he could run of the pace and with the 4 Early horses at 6/1 I used the 5f GG win. The race dictated it. And that is what I think happens most often, almost subconsciously. If your visualization is correct and you are confident in the pace scenario and composition of the field, you know where to go. I reread something lately on the Hat Check blog. Richie explained that the "Hat" didn't pick pacelines, he picked horses. Once he saw what the race was he knew what Running style would win. I haven't reached that level yet and I still rely heavily on the Energy screen especially when I variegate OTE but I have only been studying The Match Up seriously for two years. Don't get me wrong I have been at this game a long time, I bought the old Red Sartin published Match Up manual and all his books and used AODDS 98 for quite awhile. It wasn't until I found this website and the Hat Check Blog that I was able to assimilate his teachings and technique. Don't feel bad, Jim was so bad at exactas that they named a wager after him, first and third, the Hatinella.