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Old 04-09-2016, 02:37 PM   #3
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 697
My two cents:

The "big horse" in this race is Outwork, hands down...win or lose.. Pletcher might instruct the jockey to take the lead behind Tale of S"avall and to force a faster early pace in the Wood.

Dalmore has the fastest 3rd fraction from its maiden race but it was against a 6 furlong pace of 112.80 on a deeper Santa Anita dirt course after the track had made preparations ahead of "El Nino" this past winter. Dalmore's 30.20 last fractions will be negated by a faster early pace in today's match-up.

Outwork's last race was very impressive as it was its first route race off the layoff and Outwork burned the second fraction in 23.60. I believe that this second fraction move is one of the top fractions so far from this year's Derby contenders.

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Secondary contenders: I might look at Flexibility as he did finished second to Mohaymen who got squashed by Nyquist in the Florida Derby; and I will include Dalmore from way off the pace.

Good skills
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