Many focus exclusively on the closing fraction when evaluating Derby contenders- stretching out to compete at the Derby distance of a mile and 1/4. But these type of analyses can be "frivolous at best" and deceiving in determining the intrinsic ability of horses getting the "extra furlong."
All horses can run a mile and 1/4 distance but each contender can sustained its own ability running at a certain individual early pace.
A final 3/8 fraction of 37 and change is a parameter of gauge but only if it's evaluated with the early pace energy expended; does the final 3/8 fraction have significant value. It's the same method of pace evaluations that the Sartin Methodology is based on. Final times only has significance if one considers the match-up of the early pace; and not the ranking of the final time of races.
Here are some examples of some of the top Derby winners of the past who did not run under 38.0 fractions for their final 3/8 fractions. They ran the final 3/8 in 38.0 BUT after setting fractions in 1:09 and change.....
I have included the past performance for Captain Bodgit from the same year as Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby to point out that Silver Charm had a final 3/8 fraction of 38.60 after a scorching 6F in 1:09 was just good enough to best Captain Bodgit who had a final 3/8 fraction in 35.80 but after a mediocre 112.40 for 6 furlongs. Silver Charm's last 3/8 fraction was almost 3 full seconds slower than Captain Bodgit but Silver Charm expended a 6F early pace fraction more than 3 seconds faster than Captain Bodgit.
Maybe this match-up can serve as a bench mark for an imaginary inflection point for the parameters for early pace expenditures versus last 3/8 final fraction ability. (just my two cents
)