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The study was done before Ted and I decided that we needed the ability to forgive a really bad race (but only one race for each horse), so the CSR info includes horses who might have fared better in the CSR rankings had we used the open to recalculate. I have checked this "forgive" feature out on a limited basis and sometimes the CSR ranking changes and some times it does not. So in my view the CSR win %-ages should be looked upon as a minimum. Also note that when you use the forgive feature it usually only changes the SCR ranking if the race forgiven is the last or 2nd last race. This is because the weighting decreases the deeper into the PPs you go.
Also note that the top 5 CSR win about 80% on the dirt but only about 66% on the turf (races with at least 7 horses entered). The hit rates are a little higher in fields of 5 or 6 but that is to be expected
A couple of examples of the types of horses that might benefit with the recalculate feature:
- horses that get creamed at the break and never got into the race;
- horses that especially in the last two races ran on new surfaces and did not fare well, but which today are returning to a surface on which they have done better;
- At Santa Anita the adjusted speed ratings for horses running the downhill turf course are about 7 or 8 points LOWER than horses who ran on flat sprint turf races elsewhere or turf routes. So if you see that a horse prepped down the hill and got a 74 SR, the horse will usually bet competitive with milers or other distance horses with adjusted SRs of 81-82
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