04-14-2016, 01:29 PM
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#13
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Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,509
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Disregard this post - I misinterpreted the data
In the following post, I misinterpreted the data; please disregard the ROI information.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Mitch:
While in concept I totally agree with you about reviewing paceline selection, let me put this infront of you:
With automatice line selection based on "best of last three ..." In races with more than 7 horses there were 406 races where the winner was in the top three CSR AND in the top three Rx. So the bet would be $2 x 3 horses, total $2436. The return for this bet was $3,298.70, a profit of $862.70 and an ROI of +35.4%.
When both are top two, the profit on 248 races $658.40, ROI +66.4%
To put this in perspective this number of wins is approximately 10% of the study, so there is about one play per card.
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