Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 04-15-2016, 11:45 PM

These are not horses running for $5K at Mountaineer. These are extremely well bred horses, trained by some of the best horsemen in the country. Many of them are owned by their breeders. I just don't believe you can handicap this race like a cheap claiming race.
Look at the winner's pps from the bottom up: 4th lifetime start runs in a 3 year old Kentucky Derby Prep, Grade 2 finishes 3rd beaten 2.1 lengths. Goes to the sidelines for a year comes back and runs a evenish race and the very next start at KEE at today's level runs his lifetime best speed figure only to lose by a nose. Comes back in a Grade 3 at 9.5f at PIM finishes 4th against older horses. Not long and he's back on the sidelines for another 210 days. His first start back he runs an evenish race. Now what do you expect today? What does the pattern indicate? Again these are not sore, old claiming horses. Most of these horses have never seen a claiming race. Now look at the #6 horse: His first start off a 408 day layoff he is beaten 2.2 lengths in 21.9 - 44.8 - 109.8 - 115.3. He gains on the pace of the race from the 1st call home. 2nd race back they put him on the turf. This is a practice that has been used as long as I have been handicapping: dirt sprint -turf route, one for speed the other for stamina. He runs very creditably, moves in the 2nd fraction to within 1.6 lengths of the lead, gets closer by the stretch call before fading a little over a length. What do you expect? This is his first route race off a 408 day layoff. He just worked 4f in 47.6, 4th of 75 horses 5 days ago. You think his connections mean business? 3rd race off the layoff is a dynamite angle, even with cheap horses if there is some evidence that the horse is returning to form. Think about it! Why pay all those board and vet bills if the horse is broken beyond repair? I think you should expect the horse to run at least to his old top in the 3rd or 4th start back after a long layoff. He is happy, healthy and FIT!!
I have found that when I focus solely on the numbers, my brain numbs and I end up pissed off that I did it again. For me I have to evaluate the horses, one by one. Learn their story, what were they able to do and what evidence is there that they can do it again today if their best is good enough to win. When you only look at the last 3 or 4 lines you maybe not consciously but ultimately overlook valuable details and you also play right into the tote board most of the times. It's the horses whose lines are further back in their past performances that are going to pay very nice prices. Not that you do this willy nilly. You have to have reasons or excuses that justify that line selection. Two of them are Class and Speed.
Hope I haven't offended too many people but I am so passionate about this that it is upsetting to me when I see this kind of thing. Because it is right there in the pps. You just have to look and not get mesmerized by your program's numbers.

04-15-2016, 11:45 PM	#11
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Hypnotized by the numbers These are not horses running for $5K at Mountaineer. These are extremely well bred horses, trained by some of the best horsemen in the country. Many of them are owned by their breeders. I just don't believe you can handicap this race like a cheap claiming race. Look at the winner's pps from the bottom up: 4th lifetime start runs in a 3 year old Kentucky Derby Prep, Grade 2 finishes 3rd beaten 2.1 lengths. Goes to the sidelines for a year comes back and runs a evenish race and the very next start at KEE at today's level runs his lifetime best speed figure only to lose by a nose. Comes back in a Grade 3 at 9.5f at PIM finishes 4th against older horses. Not long and he's back on the sidelines for another 210 days. His first start back he runs an evenish race. Now what do you expect today? What does the pattern indicate? Again these are not sore, old claiming horses. Most of these horses have never seen a claiming race. Now look at the #6 horse: His first start off a 408 day layoff he is beaten 2.2 lengths in 21.9 - 44.8 - 109.8 - 115.3. He gains on the pace of the race from the 1st call home. 2nd race back they put him on the turf. This is a practice that has been used as long as I have been handicapping: dirt sprint -turf route, one for speed the other for stamina. He runs very creditably, moves in the 2nd fraction to within 1.6 lengths of the lead, gets closer by the stretch call before fading a little over a length. What do you expect? This is his first route race off a 408 day layoff. He just worked 4f in 47.6, 4th of 75 horses 5 days ago. You think his connections mean business? 3rd race off the layoff is a dynamite angle, even with cheap horses if there is some evidence that the horse is returning to form. Think about it! Why pay all those board and vet bills if the horse is broken beyond repair? I think you should expect the horse to run at least to his old top in the 3rd or 4th start back after a long layoff. He is happy, healthy and FIT!! I have found that when I focus solely on the numbers, my brain numbs and I end up pissed off that I did it again. For me I have to evaluate the horses, one by one. Learn their story, what were they able to do and what evidence is there that they can do it again today if their best is good enough to win. When you only look at the last 3 or 4 lines you maybe not consciously but ultimately overlook valuable details and you also play right into the tote board most of the times. It's the horses whose lines are further back in their past performances that are going to pay very nice prices. Not that you do this willy nilly. You have to have reasons or excuses that justify that line selection. Two of them are Class and Speed. Hope I haven't offended too many people but I am so passionate about this that it is upsetting to me when I see this kind of thing. Because it is right there in the pps. You just have to look and not get mesmerized by your program's numbers.