Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill V. · 04-16-2016, 02:39 AM

Thank you Mark This is why I call these races practice races
This way people can be honest and we can learn .
It is so easy to post races after the fact, but who cares because
most people only post the readouts we can't see the past performances and we can't see why horses were called contenders or not . And we also do not see when they loose Which is good too.
Also there are NO contests here, Contest should be about winning money .

Lets keep posting our FEELINGS

So we can practice to improve .

I appreciate your work up, In the book Pace Makes The Race
Tom Hamilton tells us to look deep in the horse PP's for a similar TPR
The problem with doing this was it will bite you in a race like this.
To win I figured I needed a off the pace horse because the 9 and 11 ere weak, I figured I would need a TPR over 180
The winner # 4 has it but not recently, well really almost every horse
in the race has some kind of layoff issues.

Here is another interesting look, This is copied from PM

ALL of these horses appear to have been injured at one point or another. There are just too many long layoffs and races that go back more than 2 years in some cases. I avoid races like this. The outcome is too often full of surprises.

Also, Keenland is not a early speed favoring track and with so many question marks (at least in my mind) it’s too hard to tell which of these horses with no form are going to fall out of the sky.

So here we go.
#1 – shows a race from more than a year ago.
#2 – SCR
#3 - has only 5 races, but the oldest is more than a year old.
#4 – oldest race is 861 days old. That’s more than 2 years.
#5 – only has 8 races, but the oldest is more than a year old.
#6 – oldest race is 713 days old. That’s almost 2 years.
#7 – oldest race is 783 days old. More than 2 years.
#8 – only 5 races, but the oldest is more than a year old.
#9 – oldest race is 580 days old. More than a year and a half.
#10 – only 8 races, but the oldest is 804 days. More than 2 years.
#11 – oldest race is 447 days. Almost a year and a half.
#12 – only 8 races, but the oldest is 713 days old. Almost 2 years.
So as you can see, it's not 1 or 3 horses, it's every horse in the race.

You know me, the #1 and #11 get thrown right out with a ML of 30/1.
The #12, unfortunately, is stuck on the outside of the #10 and #11, which appear to be the early speed horses. This does not bode well for any of these three horses.
There really isn’t much to choose from, so like I said, I wouldn’t be involved.

Also there was no fulcrum, More often than not when there is no fulcrum horse, you get a good price on the winner.

Good Skill
Bill

04-16-2016, 02:39 AM	#12
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Thank you Thank you Mark This is why I call these races practice races This way people can be honest and we can learn . It is so easy to post races after the fact, but who cares because most people only post the readouts we can't see the past performances and we can't see why horses were called contenders or not . And we also do not see when they loose Which is good too. Also there are NO contests here, Contest should be about winning money . Lets keep posting our FEELINGS So we can practice to improve . I appreciate your work up, In the book Pace Makes The Race Tom Hamilton tells us to look deep in the horse PP's for a similar TPR The problem with doing this was it will bite you in a race like this. To win I figured I needed a off the pace horse because the 9 and 11 ere weak, I figured I would need a TPR over 180 The winner # 4 has it but not recently, well really almost every horse in the race has some kind of layoff issues. Here is another interesting look, This is copied from PM ALL of these horses appear to have been injured at one point or another. There are just too many long layoffs and races that go back more than 2 years in some cases. I avoid races like this. The outcome is too often full of surprises. Also, Keenland is not a early speed favoring track and with so many question marks (at least in my mind) it’s too hard to tell which of these horses with no form are going to fall out of the sky. So here we go. #1 – shows a race from more than a year ago. #2 – SCR #3 - has only 5 races, but the oldest is more than a year old. #4 – oldest race is 861 days old. That’s more than 2 years. #5 – only has 8 races, but the oldest is more than a year old. #6 – oldest race is 713 days old. That’s almost 2 years. #7 – oldest race is 783 days old. More than 2 years. #8 – only 5 races, but the oldest is more than a year old. #9 – oldest race is 580 days old. More than a year and a half. #10 – only 8 races, but the oldest is 804 days. More than 2 years. #11 – oldest race is 447 days. Almost a year and a half. #12 – only 8 races, but the oldest is 713 days old. Almost 2 years. So as you can see, it's not 1 or 3 horses, it's every horse in the race. You know me, the #1 and #11 get thrown right out with a ML of 30/1. The #12, unfortunately, is stuck on the outside of the #10 and #11, which appear to be the early speed horses. This does not bode well for any of these three horses. There really isn’t much to choose from, so like I said, I wouldn’t be involved. Also there was no fulcrum, More often than not when there is no fulcrum horse, you get a good price on the winner. Good Skill Bill