[Mark]

Few trainers have the pedigree of Shug McGaughey. He doesn't seek attention but for the last 30 -40 years he has trained for a few families, the "Blue Bloods" of the industry. At one time I could rattle the names off to you, but while you gain wisdom with age, you lose memory and youth! His last top horse was ORB to win the Derby a few years back.
I admit it though I shared your concerns about the #4 and the #6 was my bet in this race. I will rarely bet a horse less than 6/1 because the way I handicap leads to a few torn up tickets. But I also bet win and place on horses over 8/1 because I am a 1 horse better. While my variegation was OTE, and I projected a somewhat moderate pace, 1:11 and change, I thought the #6 would be ahead of the #4 for the entire race. That SA sprint was fast and I only bet S horses if I can eliminate the Ps and SPs first.
However, the subject of this thread is TPR and my first post here was that a focus solely based on numbers, for me, leads to a mind numbing experience. While I respect and admire Bill V's for his long experience and tenacity, I can not bring my self to focus solely on the last 3 or 4 pacelines. If I limit my paceline selection to just those lines, and only a "+" or "(+)" race without fully exploring the horse's entire pps, then I don't know what this horse was capable of at one time. And it directly conflicts with Jim Bradshaw's instruction, through Richie P in the Hat Check Blog, his books and the old Red "Match Up" manual.
While this was an exceptional race, by far the majority of races we all play are claiming races. Bill's discipline and guidelines save him a lot of lost wagers when betting those horses. However, when racing has been interrupted by layoffs in the last 4 lines, there is an opportunity for betting away from the Public which means higher returns. Without those layoffs which the Public find very hard to deal with, and I might add shippers to that list, it is improbable that lines deep in the pps are valid today. Most often the races proceeding the layoff will be very poor as the horse was suffering some infirmity and the trainer could figure it out. So the likelihood is that there are 4 or 5 races depending on the number of races since his return, that are very poor. So to get an indication of the horse's capabilities you have to look way back. Is there a line or lines that make the horse competitive today? If not then there is no further need for discussion. But if there is then you have to investigate him further. By far the leading infirmities in a race horse are problems associated with the front legs. Bowed tendons and suspensory problems probably lead the way. But also in older runners Arthritis in the joints is a painful issue. Most often you see this in the pps by their inability to run the turns. Just like modern football players, straight ahead running is not the problem. The problem is in the stability of the joints while cutting and moving laterally. The centrifugal forces caused by running around turns at 30+ miles an hour stresses those injured areas and causes the horse to want to stop. So the single most important aspect of conditioning from a handicapper's perspective is determining whether the horse has had enough conditioning to be racing fit and sound upon his return to the races. His finish position is less important than how he has run his return races. This is why my most rewarding angle is 2 or 3 races off an extended layoff.
Limiting the paceline selection to the last 3 or 4 races will cause you to completely miss these horses. Since you are only going to select from one of these lines it is natural not to look farther back. And if there isn't a big speed figure or a dominating win to look back at, it is on to the next horse, check the Non-contender box.
In a race that Bill posted a week or so ago, there was a horse who had run at Hastings before shipping to Golden Gate Fields and now was at TUP. In his bottom 4 races the horse had the lead or was second at the Stretch call of these 6.5f races, in other words at the 5.5f point in those races. He ran Early or EP in most. His races at GG were over the Poly track and he had run well and won in 5f races most all at higher claiming levels. He had won as an SP. His first race at TUP he broke last but made a huge move in the 2nd fraction in I believe a 6.5f race before fading. Huge I mean more than 5 lengths gained on the leaders. Well, you can forgive the first start over a new track but ignoring the Turn Time move was critical. This horse doesn't have physical problems. The races at Hasting at higher levels tells you the horse can perform on dirt surfaces and his wins at GG from off the pace was exactly what you were looking for in a race loaded with EARLY speed. The horse is versatile and fast and has won from a position off the pace at 5f. His first start at TUP and the wicked move in the 2nd fraction tells you the horse is sound and ready on the cut back to 5.5f today.
To form a valid opinion on a race horse you must review the entire pps, not limit your focus to the last 3 or 4 lines. That's like reading half the text book before your exam. You gain a much better level of understanding of the horse by noting the freshenings and layoffs, days between races, movements up and down the claiming ladder, changes in ownership and improvements or regressions in the new barns. These are not numbers. This is thought provoking analysis that give you a much higher level of understanding which can lead you to a more well founded opinion of the horse's current condition.
But I will get off my soap box because this is just one man's opinion and I state it in hopes that it will make sense to some who read it and benefit them.