Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 04-24-2016, 07:39 AM

The Final Fraction is the least predictive of the 3 because it can not win by itself. However, the factor SP is the most predictive for turf racing in a recent study at another Software site. SP is defined as (EP+FR3)/2 if I remember correctly. In other words, where is the horse positionally in the race prior to the FR3. FR3 has to be viewed in context. How many times to you see a horse or horses closing in the stretch, visually running faster than all the rest getting up for 4th or 5th. They often come into view as the camera pans the winner and those battling for the lead at the wire. These horses will have the best FR3 in the race but unless that is combined with enough Early Pace to obtain a contentious position at the 2nd call, the horse will never cash a ticket. This is all Incremental Velocity stuff and EXDC of Running Styles. Horses slow into stride or that just plain lack early speed once they do reach their highest velocities then decelerate more slowly. That's what your are seeing in the late stretch. The difference in the rates of deceleration is what creates this optical illusion. "The Hat's" 2 for 1 theory is specifically valid with Early and Presser horses that a attempting to take the lead or stay close up to the lead. By this exertion, running faster or somewhat slower in the 1st fraction deceleration in the Final Fraction is increased or reduced.

04-24-2016, 07:39 AM	#36
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	3rd fraction The Final Fraction is the least predictive of the 3 because it can not win by itself. However, the factor SP is the most predictive for turf racing in a recent study at another Software site. SP is defined as (EP+FR3)/2 if I remember correctly. In other words, where is the horse positionally in the race prior to the FR3. FR3 has to be viewed in context. How many times to you see a horse or horses closing in the stretch, visually running faster than all the rest getting up for 4th or 5th. They often come into view as the camera pans the winner and those battling for the lead at the wire. These horses will have the best FR3 in the race but unless that is combined with enough Early Pace to obtain a contentious position at the 2nd call, the horse will never cash a ticket. This is all Incremental Velocity stuff and EXDC of Running Styles. Horses slow into stride or that just plain lack early speed once they do reach their highest velocities then decelerate more slowly. That's what your are seeing in the late stretch. The difference in the rates of deceleration is what creates this optical illusion. "The Hat's" 2 for 1 theory is specifically valid with Early and Presser horses that a attempting to take the lead or stay close up to the lead. By this exertion, running faster or somewhat slower in the 1st fraction deceleration in the Final Fraction is increased or reduced.