Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 04-25-2016, 04:29 PM

Its a horses natural instinct to chase speed. All races have to be put into context. Just because a horse is in the lead at say the S C and 75 % of the race is over doesn't mean he can win. It depends on how fast he decelerates and how fast the other horses accelerates.

Each race is different however generally the longer a horse holds its speed the better the horse is, higher class horses run better 3rd Fr . regardless of running style and decelerate the least to include E horses. P,SP & S types win races everyday and SP & S types generally pay higher mutual. Some horses that run S are totally immune to early pace because they run much later therefore the pace doesn't effect them as it does other E & Ep types.

A classic example of this was Tenpin's recent win at TB on 12 Mar.16,10th, at 9F:
109.08( SC 66.6666 % over -14 lg.'s) mile 134.08( 88.8888% over -5 lg.'s) finish won, made it up. of course its acceleration wasn't the only factor so was the POR horse who after a blazing 6F began to decelerate and ended up 2nd but still had the lead after 8F by 5 lg. Hit a brick wall after the mile. But the winner was also flying.

Its about context and EPR, LPR, and CPR / TPR all have to be considered in TPR. Of course we have other tools in later programs and even advance concepts in TPR to help in decision making.

Mitch44

04-25-2016, 04:29 PM	#40
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Its a horses natural instinct to chase speed. All races have to be put into context. Just because a horse is in the lead at say the S C and 75 % of the race is over doesn't mean he can win. It depends on how fast he decelerates and how fast the other horses accelerates. Each race is different however generally the longer a horse holds its speed the better the horse is, higher class horses run better 3rd Fr . regardless of running style and decelerate the least to include E horses. P,SP & S types win races everyday and SP & S types generally pay higher mutual. Some horses that run S are totally immune to early pace because they run much later therefore the pace doesn't effect them as it does other E & Ep types. A classic example of this was Tenpin's recent win at TB on 12 Mar.16,10th, at 9F: 109.08( SC 66.6666 % over -14 lg.'s) mile 134.08( 88.8888% over -5 lg.'s) finish won, made it up. of course its acceleration wasn't the only factor so was the POR horse who after a blazing 6F began to decelerate and ended up 2nd but still had the lead after 8F by 5 lg. Hit a brick wall after the mile. But the winner was also flying. Its about context and EPR, LPR, and CPR / TPR all have to be considered in TPR. Of course we have other tools in later programs and even advance concepts in TPR to help in decision making. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-25-2016 at 04:34 PM.