Thanks Lone Speed
Hi Poppa3times
In looking at Lone Speeds screenshot and the June 21 race were it was -31.
based on what I see, This is a pretty good turf horse, I base that on the TPR numbers. Horses who run consistently in the high 170's and into the 180's in TPR usually are higher class horses. The reason they are higher class horses is they use there total energy or EPR to LPR balance better than lower class horses,
This horse has only 1 kind of low TPR, that is race 4 on Sept 5th at Del Mar.
It only gets a 174.9 because it ran too slow in EPR getting only a 68.8 , Its LPR is great at 106.1. In all shown races its always running strong LPRs
In race 4 It could have been handled improperly because of the 9 furlong distance ?
Anyway back to your question, Is -31.1 too late ?
Well it would be, in almost all dirt races, Turf races are run differently and like I said since we seem to be looking at strong horses in this example
I would say maybe
..
That seems like on the fence answer, but you need to ask this, what will the EPR for the lead horse
be in today's race , If the EPR is fast than the horse could be too far back or even if the EPR is fast is it because of a stupid trainer/owner who puts a early dirt horse into a turf race against this quality horse competition? This kind of horse will set a fast EPR which the other horses have to adjust too or
they could just let it go and figure it will fade .
This is why modeling the early late graph is tricky
If you do model it, you must break your model down to competition level, distance and maybe
males and females