Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 05-20-2016, 03:53 PM

Positioning has always been a little tricky. A horse can either run to his normal position or run to its normal time.

So say the pace is 22-45 and the horse is 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If the pace is 23-46 this horse might be on or challenging for the lead at the first call and could be the leader at the second call. If the horse had not shown good performances, ie., closer attendance to the pace at slower paces you could assume that the horse would be out of its normal position and possibly confused by its placing near the lead. The Hat said that horses out of position usually do not overcome that situation very often. Along this line he said that in paceless races the presser that inherits the lead is the first toss out, unless he had won from that position before.

The other option is that the horse is still 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If this is how your horse runs, he is now running slower than the first race and should have more in reserve for a late run. So then you need to know how the rest of the field does against the slower projected pace.

Now if the pace is faster, say 21.6-44.6 the horse that ran 3rd-2nd by the same lengths is running faster and will not have the same finishing kick because of the fast early exertion.

Sometimes the pace of the race alters the running style of how you label the horse. If the horse is an EP at 22.0, but today's pace is 21.2, that horse might become a P, and the horse that was a P at 22, might become an SP at the faster pace, once again putting them in unusual positions within the race.

The real answer comes from the horse himself and the mix of runners in each race. What has the horse done in the past under this circumstances? If the horse is consistently an EP or P no matter what the pace you could project faster closing speed with a slower pace and slower closing speed with a faster pace.

Another facet to consider is how many horses will he have to pass today and how many lengths to make up. The Hat said that it took a unit of energy to pass another horse and another unit of energy to make up a length. So no matter what the pace, a horse could have too much to do in order to win today.

A long time ago at Woodbine I followed a horse for 3 races and it ran the same fractions and final time in all three races. He lost the first two and in the third race, running the exact same final time, he won because no one could run the same final time that he did. This horse's positions and lengths back changed to match the pace of race each time.

Hope this helps.

05-20-2016, 03:53 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Positioning has always been a little tricky. A horse can either run to his normal position or run to its normal time. So say the pace is 22-45 and the horse is 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If the pace is 23-46 this horse might be on or challenging for the lead at the first call and could be the leader at the second call. If the horse had not shown good performances, ie., closer attendance to the pace at slower paces you could assume that the horse would be out of its normal position and possibly confused by its placing near the lead. The Hat said that horses out of position usually do not overcome that situation very often. Along this line he said that in paceless races the presser that inherits the lead is the first toss out, unless he had won from that position before. The other option is that the horse is still 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If this is how your horse runs, he is now running slower than the first race and should have more in reserve for a late run. So then you need to know how the rest of the field does against the slower projected pace. Now if the pace is faster, say 21.6-44.6 the horse that ran 3rd-2nd by the same lengths is running faster and will not have the same finishing kick because of the fast early exertion. Sometimes the pace of the race alters the running style of how you label the horse. If the horse is an EP at 22.0, but today's pace is 21.2, that horse might become a P, and the horse that was a P at 22, might become an SP at the faster pace, once again putting them in unusual positions within the race. The real answer comes from the horse himself and the mix of runners in each race. What has the horse done in the past under this circumstances? If the horse is consistently an EP or P no matter what the pace you could project faster closing speed with a slower pace and slower closing speed with a faster pace. Another facet to consider is how many horses will he have to pass today and how many lengths to make up. The Hat said that it took a unit of energy to pass another horse and another unit of energy to make up a length. So no matter what the pace, a horse could have too much to do in order to win today. A long time ago at Woodbine I followed a horse for 3 races and it ran the same fractions and final time in all three races. He lost the first two and in the third race, running the exact same final time, he won because no one could run the same final time that he did. This horse's positions and lengths back changed to match the pace of race each time. Hope this helps.