Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 05-22-2016, 05:36 PM

The track was the deciding factor in yesterday's Preakness because it predetermined the strategy employed by the speed horses. The amount of rain that had fallen turned the inside paths into a quagmire and that forced Uncle Limo to sprint away from the gate in hopes of getting outside. That forced Nyquist to go with him as well as Awesome Speed. These horses have never had slop flung back in their faces at 35 mph and to attempt to rate would have put them on the deepest part of the track inside in an unfamiliar circumstance. I did not think Awesome Speed had the early speed to go with the top 2 and he had just enough to stay on Nyquist's flank and prevent him from easing off the pace while being clear on the outside. That was the ballgame!
It is a true indication of the quality of Nyquist that he was only beaten a few lengths while Uncle Limo finished sore and was vanned off and Awesome Speed finished 9th beaten 21.5 lengths. The race fell apart after the 1/2 mile. They went 22.2 - 24.2 - 25.4 - 26.2 - 26.9(3/16ths equalized to 1/4 mile). Compare that to the Derby: 22.4 - 23.2 - 24.8 - 25.2 - 25.6.
Gutierrez rode the race that he had to. He can't be faulted.
The only horse with experience in these conditions and the Running style to take advantage of them won the race easily. One of the most sustained horses in the race, Cherry Wine even with tremendous trouble finished second which just shows that the early runners had exhausted themselves. Yet Nyquist kept running and after he was passed he shifted outside and kept trying. Although he is not a large animal and will have to have his races spaced out, he is most likely the best of this crop.

05-22-2016, 05:36 PM	#41
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Preakness The track was the deciding factor in yesterday's Preakness because it predetermined the strategy employed by the speed horses. The amount of rain that had fallen turned the inside paths into a quagmire and that forced Uncle Limo to sprint away from the gate in hopes of getting outside. That forced Nyquist to go with him as well as Awesome Speed. These horses have never had slop flung back in their faces at 35 mph and to attempt to rate would have put them on the deepest part of the track inside in an unfamiliar circumstance. I did not think Awesome Speed had the early speed to go with the top 2 and he had just enough to stay on Nyquist's flank and prevent him from easing off the pace while being clear on the outside. That was the ballgame! It is a true indication of the quality of Nyquist that he was only beaten a few lengths while Uncle Limo finished sore and was vanned off and Awesome Speed finished 9th beaten 21.5 lengths. The race fell apart after the 1/2 mile. They went 22.2 - 24.2 - 25.4 - 26.2 - 26.9(3/16ths equalized to 1/4 mile). Compare that to the Derby: 22.4 - 23.2 - 24.8 - 25.2 - 25.6. Gutierrez rode the race that he had to. He can't be faulted. The only horse with experience in these conditions and the Running style to take advantage of them won the race easily. One of the most sustained horses in the race, Cherry Wine even with tremendous trouble finished second which just shows that the early runners had exhausted themselves. Yet Nyquist kept running and after he was passed he shifted outside and kept trying. Although he is not a large animal and will have to have his races spaced out, he is most likely the best of this crop.