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Jeff:
There is very little information to go on to make a decision, but I probably would make the horse a contender. All we can do is analyze the times as presented. On April 15 the horse ran what looks like a very decent race against the fulcrum time. That race alone makes the horse a contender.
My guess is that you are thrown off by the poor race against a 48.2 on May 26. That looks pretty miserable. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO ONE RACE! Horses come in to form and go out of form. Many things happen during a race. Search for the truth that is the overall actual ability of the horse. On June 21 the horse ran a "race within a race" for 4 furlongs. That is a sign the horse is coming in to form. Definitely a contender next time out.
Look for explanations as to a poor race. Wrong class, running trouble, wrong surface, etc. If you do not see anything then use your intuition and all available evidence to determine whether the race should be excused.
Gary
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