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Application in the field
While I have long been aware of this statement and the theoretical proof, my question relates to the 2:1 reduction in actual practice. My observation has always been that each horse has its own distinct exchange rate, so to speak - such that a two for one gain/loss is a bit of a simplification. In the screen shot from the E/L graph which, someone correctly if I am wrong, uses adjusted race lines, the horse in the 3rd back ran 92.0 early and 98.2 late. In its last race it ran 89/100. If it were truly 2:1, then running 3 ticks slower in race one would mean 106 late, for a total of 195, instead of 189. The horse won its last by 11 and finished 2nd in race 3. From the PPs you might expect that the best final fraction to be expected from this horse is 104.8 or thereabouts.
If you look at race 6 where the early/late was 95.8/97.2 and compare it to race 3's 92/98.2, again the 2.8 ticks slower early does not result in 5.6 ticks faster late and the LPR is not 102.8, but 98.2.
I picked this horse because it was an early or early presser, the most likely horse type to respond in a 2:1 factor. It is not an isolated example as you can find it every day in almost every race.
Too me, it looks like if the horse runs slower by 5 ticks next out, it can finish 5 ticks faster. IN this case the 189, 190.2 and the 193 appear to coincide with that observation when you compare the actual E/L data.
What am I missing?
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