Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Well, the reason I used TPR is because in some of The Hat's explanations he considered both the first and second fractions time and added or subtracted based on the total differential to whatever race he was matching.
So a horse having to race against 21.3 (tenths) vs 22, would be running 2 ticks faster, and if the two ticks faster carried through the 2nd fraction such that 44.3 was required instead of a 45, that was counted as an addition two ticks, (now totaling 4) such that the projected 3rd fraction was going to be impacted by 8 ticks slower.
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Bill...
I am not going to enlightened anyone here as my original intent was to prove that any first call expenditure affected the final time by a factor of two while any 2nd call expenditure- only affected the final time by an equal amount of energy.
Horses are limited by faster acceleration of two units generally while a higher "ability horses" can withstand a little more. It is similar to us, humans; we can only withstand so much "G Forces." Any faster acceleration will cause "energy dissipation" or "Entropy."
On the other hand; an acceleration of slower fractions than our initial baseline fraction- horses tend to carry this "conserved" energy only so far...It does have a "glass ceiling"....Friction of the track and the natural forces will allow so much energy to carry forward to the final fractions.
As far as applying the "concepts"....(K.I.S.S.)
I tend to limit myself to 1st call slowdown only for lone early speed runners or 1st call and 2nd call slowdowns for lone early speed runners. By evaluating the Energy expenditures section only. Horses must have a certain amount of energy advantage over the next closest competitor-otherwise no adjustments.
For "Fast Up"
Looking at %median of the matchup of true contenders (limited to six contenders or less)
If a horse is deficient by more than 1.5%-2% from the top fulcum horse in %median. Then I adjust the 2nd call faster by one tick or two ticks.
I focus on these adjustments exclusively.....