Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Well, its been about 15 years since I knew what a fulcrum horse was. So all that about so many % off % median has me confused further.
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Okay Bill....(inho)
Say you narrowed the race to 4 or 5 contenders
Horse A: #1 E/EP ranked horse by just by looking at its %percent median; it has 68.5%
Horse A: 68.5%
Horse B: 67.5%
Horse C: 68.25%
Horse D: 67.75%
Horse E: 66.5% percent median
Horse E has a 2% difference in % median in this match-up compared to the highest -Horse A which has 68.5%
You can also look at the Early and Late Sticks and come up with your own parameters at your track. Horse E will have [late side] or - 15.0
This evaluation works best on dirt races.....and fast tracks
Horse E is deficient in percent median and is not within 1.5% of Horse A (The value of 1.5% is the parameter that I have tracked in the past)
Others playing a deep tiring track or a drying out dirt track after some heavy rain; might come up with a different value.
Regarding Horse E: We adjust the second fraction faster by two ticks and add two ticks to the Final Time:
Horse E: original paceline of 48.0 for 1st fraction and 113.0 for 2nd fraction while setting all the fractions in this paceline..
Adjusted paceline: 48.0 for 1st fraction and 112.3(fifths) for 2nd fraction and adding two fifths to the original final time.
As for your 2nd question; I have to find a computer with a "Duck" for posting screenshots...
Examples:
Smarty Jones' paceline in the Rebel
I'll Have Another in the R B Lewis Stakes
Charismatic in the Lexington