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Its a fallacy to look only at the 1st & 2nd Fr as you stated before. Doing so only makes one an early speed handicapper. It has to be carried through to include the 3rd FR for completeness. Additionally some horses running styles make their 3rd Fr the best or highest and sustained horses, or closers etc. catch the speed everyday throughout the country. The manner in which some horses run make them immune to the 2 to 1 formula or ratio. Yes read that again! Otherwise S types etc. would never win.
Such analysis must be carried through the 3rd Fr or your going to lose many races. The match up is more complicated than just a 2 to 1 formula. That's fine if all the contestants are E types. Total TPR / Total Energy is another major consideration. The match up consist of several important factors. ESP or running styles is perhaps a major consideration, even class has an effect on the match up.
Few are able to carry the match up through the 3rd Fr. Sure we can all do some races and get some winners but I take both the Doc and Jimmies advice and let the computer perform what my brain can't on a consistent basis.
Know your capabilities and limitations to capture the most consistent profits and winners.
Mitch44
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