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I've known about the Bannon Journals for a while now, and its mention gets me thinking about my experience today with Gulfstream and Woodbine.
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Several times during the card at WO today I found that the RDSS conclusions the software and I came to were right, based on the available evidence and the algorithms RDSS computes. What the past performances, algorithms and educated intuition CAN'T tell you is whether the 20-1 longshot with no chance on paper makes it into the Place, busting up your exacta, or the horse wins and demolishes your 2 horse win strategy by winning and thereby causing your 3rd choice, which you didn't bet, into the second hole! I found this happening several times today and I admit it was frustrating. I spend a lot of time on each card, cross-checking my own conclusions and those of RDSS by also employing the MPH Pro service from Trackmaster. Generally my paceline selection (plural for MPH Pro) is 85% or more accurate the first time.
The other thing RDSS can't tell you is what transpired so as to render one of those miraculous reversals of form. You know, the 40% trainer using only hay, oats and water...
One of the most unsettling (read: pissed me off) events of the day was the 10th at Woodbine. My personal betting matrix included the 8, 7 and 2 (in that order) partly due to their deceleration factors as indicated in the BL/BL screen. So when the 7, Via Nevada, won, and paid $43.60 keying a decent P4 payoff, I had committed a cardinal sin in the setup to that wager. I trusted a tout. An online tout I respect presented a reasonable P4 sequence. I played it with only a cursory check of his selections. Wrong move. He omitted the 2 from his 5 horses (3,4,5,6,10) in the 10th. Based on my choice of pacelines, RDSS rated the 4,5,6&10 as non-contenders. Oh hell. The tout didn't know that, but I did, and I didn't check with RDSS or really look at the 10th until after my ticket was in and it was over. It was only a $12 lesson, but the worst part was abandoning my studied and methodical modus operandi. I felt like an idiot.
So my lesson learned was to eschew trusting touts - or taking flyers, which is what I did - without analyzing it on my own. I missed a very modest $234 twenty cent payout by not doing the work and trusting myself as well as the software with which I am getting more comfortable.
In a postscript, I haven't had much success with CBY. Has anyone here? I'd like to support their lower vig, but not at the expense of the bankroll without at least occasional replenishments...I'll stick to GP, WO and maybe AP. And then SAR in a couple weeks.
Relevant screen shots attached. As for the pacelines of this particular race, they are RDSS' Best Perceptor selections unaltered by me.
Kevin
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