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Old 07-19-2016, 12:28 AM   #3
MikeB
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
There are several variations off the FPLR concept, but a major one is using it to project the pace of today's race.

Quote:
There are two ways to project pace.

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning.

2. Find the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race, at today's track, and at today's distance. Tandem races are good races used in this procedure. If none of the horse have run at today's distance consider any fast sprint, or any fast route line. This horse is the pace horse that all the other horses will be matched against.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

In option 2 above, you find the horse that ran the best against the fastest pace of all of the last race pace lines in today's field. You assume that those splits will be the pace of today's race. Then you look at every pace line of every horse to see if it is capable of running well against that pace. If not, throw it out. If so, it is a contender.
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