Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Mike,
When you find the FPLR was run by a S or L horse that runs by everyone late, using that early pace, which he has benefited from does not lead to a good result usually.
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I agree. I was just trying to provide a short and quick view of what I thought Jim and Richie meant by "the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race". And things like final time or beaten lengths certainly don't enter into it.
You will notice that I finessed my previous post by not mentioning Sustained or closer running styles.
In practice, I would never use an "S" for pace projection. An "S" is much too dependent on what every other horse in the field does. Even a "P" can be a problem if there are really no "E"s or "EP"s in the race. It's hard to tell what a "P" will do if it suddenly finds itself in unknown territory, like with the early lead. I believe that The Hat said that if a "P" is the likely early leader, the race will probably run OTE.
The early actions of "E"s and "EP"s are much more predicable. Closers don't determine pace, they react. If you can't find an "E" or "EP" that qualifies as FPLR, I'd say you have to do something else, like what you said about making a voodoo hybrid. Or legitimately excusing a horse's last line and going to the 2nd line for the pace projection.