Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 07-20-2016, 01:05 PM

Richie,
I have read your postings in the Hat Check so many times, I feel like I know you. Of course, that is not the case and i realize that much of that was done over 5 years ago and you have a family and a full time profession now. So i will try to keep it short.
I open every race with the last line selected and go immediately to the Velocity POR screen. Starting with the top horse which may or may not be the #1 1st fraction horse but is the #1 2nd Call horse I will switch to the Original screen to see what kind of race that horse ran. Generally speaking, if the pace was not super hot and the horse attempted to Press it and then faded in the final fraction I will not consider his finish good enough unless he finished within 2 lengths. If he did Press a hot pace and faded I will consider it a good effort if he finished within 5 to 7.5 lengths.(I use Val4 format). My effort to learn the Match Up has taken me 3 1/2 years. I have been handicapping the horses for over 50 years. Part of that time was figuring out how to use RDSS2 to implement the Match Up. With the choices of Variant application it is no mean task.
I will start throwing horses out starting with the top horse on the Velocity-POR screen that do not finish well enough until I get to a horse that Pressed or set the Early Pace and finished to my specifications. I have vacillated back and forth as to use the Top 1st fraction horse on this screen or the way they are listed, top 2nd call. I realize the "The Hat" emphasized in his comments and through you on the blog the importance of the 1st fraction and I am a believer. But I also have found the importance of the 2nd fraction which often will bring the 1st fraction leader and the fast moving 2nd fraction horse to even terms. If the 1st fraction horse falls off the cliff in the 2nd fraction generally he is done.
I like older claimers at cheap tracks and NW-2L and NW-3L races. You normally have 10 lines on each horse and it is easier for me to decipher what the trainer is doing. If there is no horse that meets the requirements for FPLR, then I usually just pick POWER LINES and attempt to determine who has been brought up to today's race and might be able to reproduce that effort if it is deep in the pps.
Once I find the FPLR horse I try to find a better line deeper in his pps. I also look for efforts in the last 4 lines which show versatility in Running style that I can be apply Voodoo #1 technique. There are limitations here with RDSS2 as most of this has to be done mentally and my short term memory is not what it once was. Once I have him set I look at horses that can beat him by selecting all the horse's lines, go to Analysis and again Velocity POR to see if the horse ever ran well against the FPLR's finalized paceline POR. This is my concession to variant adjustment because in races with shippers I don't know the 1st fraction adjustments and although for along time would not use DTV, I have recently adopted the 50% DTV +/- 50, ITV and Val4 format. For the most part I think this is serviceable.
Horses are either accepted or thrown out after this exercise. However, I do not eliminate the Non-contenders from the screen. I usually leave them in the Non-contender section off the line that had the closest 1st fraction POR. In this way I can make the variegation call using all horses to determine early contention.
Are there errors in your opinion in the method I am using and if so what suggestions would you make.
Thank you again for your time and all the effort you have put into carrying Jim's work into the future!

07-20-2016, 01:05 PM	#13
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Very much appreciated... Richie, I have read your postings in the Hat Check so many times, I feel like I know you. Of course, that is not the case and i realize that much of that was done over 5 years ago and you have a family and a full time profession now. So i will try to keep it short. I open every race with the last line selected and go immediately to the Velocity POR screen. Starting with the top horse which may or may not be the #1 1st fraction horse but is the #1 2nd Call horse I will switch to the Original screen to see what kind of race that horse ran. Generally speaking, if the pace was not super hot and the horse attempted to Press it and then faded in the final fraction I will not consider his finish good enough unless he finished within 2 lengths. If he did Press a hot pace and faded I will consider it a good effort if he finished within 5 to 7.5 lengths.(I use Val4 format). My effort to learn the Match Up has taken me 3 1/2 years. I have been handicapping the horses for over 50 years. Part of that time was figuring out how to use RDSS2 to implement the Match Up. With the choices of Variant application it is no mean task. I will start throwing horses out starting with the top horse on the Velocity-POR screen that do not finish well enough until I get to a horse that Pressed or set the Early Pace and finished to my specifications. I have vacillated back and forth as to use the Top 1st fraction horse on this screen or the way they are listed, top 2nd call. I realize the "The Hat" emphasized in his comments and through you on the blog the importance of the 1st fraction and I am a believer. But I also have found the importance of the 2nd fraction which often will bring the 1st fraction leader and the fast moving 2nd fraction horse to even terms. If the 1st fraction horse falls off the cliff in the 2nd fraction generally he is done. I like older claimers at cheap tracks and NW-2L and NW-3L races. You normally have 10 lines on each horse and it is easier for me to decipher what the trainer is doing. If there is no horse that meets the requirements for FPLR, then I usually just pick POWER LINES and attempt to determine who has been brought up to today's race and might be able to reproduce that effort if it is deep in the pps. Once I find the FPLR horse I try to find a better line deeper in his pps. I also look for efforts in the last 4 lines which show versatility in Running style that I can be apply Voodoo #1 technique. There are limitations here with RDSS2 as most of this has to be done mentally and my short term memory is not what it once was. Once I have him set I look at horses that can beat him by selecting all the horse's lines, go to Analysis and again Velocity POR to see if the horse ever ran well against the FPLR's finalized paceline POR. This is my concession to variant adjustment because in races with shippers I don't know the 1st fraction adjustments and although for along time would not use DTV, I have recently adopted the 50% DTV +/- 50, ITV and Val4 format. For the most part I think this is serviceable. Horses are either accepted or thrown out after this exercise. However, I do not eliminate the Non-contenders from the screen. I usually leave them in the Non-contender section off the line that had the closest 1st fraction POR. In this way I can make the variegation call using all horses to determine early contention. Are there errors in your opinion in the method I am using and if so what suggestions would you make. Thank you again for your time and all the effort you have put into carrying Jim's work into the future!