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Important information
Richie, your clarification of the requirements for an OTE runner's paceline projecting is really helpful. It was a contradiction to me that you would use a line where the horse didn't have the lead, but we used that pace to assess the other runners. I kind of thought that the rationale was that this is the early pace this horse can win against so to beat him a competitor would have to be able to run successfully against it. Yet at the same time, the was no guarantee that someone would run that fast early to carve out those fractions. I'd get my head handed to me at times in Turf races when the only E goes out in 25-50 and you have horses that have competed favorably against 24 -48. Midpack or closer horses that gain position and beaten lengths 1c -2c can use their superior final fraction if they have one to advantage as they can get on level terms entering the stretch. You just have to make sure that Early runner doesn't have a big final fraction off that slow early pace. I can see that now.
I believe there are a number of tips and clues just like this that make a huge difference not only to me but to others. The is so much information in the Hat Check blog and a lot of it was presented as Jim taught it to you. It has taken me literally years to piece alot of this together. The beauty of this exchange is as soon as i see it, it answers my question and guides my actions.
Can't wait to work a race or two!!
Thank you
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