This is a race loaded with horses that have shown to run their best pushing hard for the lead. There are also two long layoff horses #8 and #10, off 274 day and 289 days respectively that I made EPS. That's 1 E and 4 EPs. Richie showed a spot play in the Hat Check Blog that suggested you have to account for each of the early horses at the 1st call if you variegate the race OTE which I have done. So I am looking for a horse that will be in at least 5th position at the 1st call. My FPLR horse is #9 at 22.4 -46.2 from his last race. But he now has to step up to NW-3L. I also note the lay off horse #10 who shows a 21.9 - 46.1 from his POWER LINE. The #4's POWER LINE shows a 2nd Call of 45.8, 1/2 length back.
I don't have tremendous confidence in my handicapping of this race as these are pretty cheap, unreliable horses. But my feeling is that there will be 5 horses charging out for the lead and if the #10 shakes free early as fresh horses often do, they are going to be running on fumes as they turn for home. One run late horses have the opportunity to swoop by in the shadow of the wire and that is either the #3 or the #6. The #3 would be my horse because he moves first but his paceline is so dang slow. The #6 makes a POWER MOVE 1C -2C gaining 3 positions and over 4 lengths off a 45.9 second call. Even though I would like to see some activity on the track since its last race, this is my horse. I might take a #1, #3, #6 exacta box as a saver.
