[Tim Y]

Both Taleb and Khanaman describe human's tendency to start believing the "story" we paint over what we really do not know as the Narrative Fallacy: our belief that we assign a PROBABLE reason for an event mutually exclusive from the actual facts.

Best example I know was in a movie with Reagan as he portrayed a old time pitcher with alcohol problems. Young boy and his dad are up in the stands and the pitcher (Reagan) and the catcher keep conferring with one another on the mound. Right so, the boy asks "What are they talking about?" the father returns:"Well they are trying to figure out how to pitch to this guy."

Camera goes down to the scene on the mound:

Reagan: "Still have that shot gun for sale that you mentioned before the game?"
Catcher:"Yes, but why are you asking me now?"
Reagan: "I just wanted to make sure it was still available that's all!"

Even the most mundane ASSUMPTIONS are often fraught with the wrong conclusions.