Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 08-06-2016, 08:33 PM

Just looking at what charts were posted here I would say the 2, 4,6, & 8 were all viable contenders in this race based only with what was shown. If Mark had this 2 as both a contender and a bet he deserves the recognition for a good Hcp. job. Others should have had it as a contender. I would have used line #3 or L 6 but don't have enough information here to make a final decision etc. I. e. did the horse have trouble in the last two lines to justify going back to L6? Don't know but even L 3 puts in in the hunt or a contender against this field.

The reason the "Hat" went back and viewed all lines was he looked at all lines to get a feel or average for the horse in question. He didn't care if a horse ran a very fast 1Fr as it may have been on a very fast track such as SA or a very slow 1st Fr such as perhaps from Calder. Ditto for the 2nd Fr & or SC.

What he was looking for was what did the horse normally do in these Fr's and he got that from looking from all its races and 1st Fr etc. Note he could adjust those abnormal Fr's by the track record and bring back to what the horse normally would do. Those that only look at the last line or two are going to miss many of winners. When doing this the "Hat " wasn't picking pace lines per say. He was picking contenders and knowing what their regular was could match them up. He wasn't picking lines 10 back etc. It was based on what the horse normally does vs. what he must do today against the contenders. He also was only a one horse better.

I will disagree with Mark on one thing and that is that Bradshaw's methods and techniques do lend themselves to computerization. He worked in concert with the "Doc" and the match up is included in the RDSS readouts today. Those that rely strictly on the last race and only carry the match-up to the SC essentially are only speed handicappers. If that were the case than S, SP & EP would never get up. Another fallacy is just because a horse is in the lead at the 2nd call doesn't mean he can't be caught. Even in a mile race where 80% of the race is over. It really depends how fast the leader decelerates vs. how fast the others accelerate.

Mitch44

08-06-2016, 08:33 PM	#16
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Just looking at what charts were posted here I would say the 2, 4,6, & 8 were all viable contenders in this race based only with what was shown. If Mark had this 2 as both a contender and a bet he deserves the recognition for a good Hcp. job. Others should have had it as a contender. I would have used line #3 or L 6 but don't have enough information here to make a final decision etc. I. e. did the horse have trouble in the last two lines to justify going back to L6? Don't know but even L 3 puts in in the hunt or a contender against this field. The reason the "Hat" went back and viewed all lines was he looked at all lines to get a feel or average for the horse in question. He didn't care if a horse ran a very fast 1Fr as it may have been on a very fast track such as SA or a very slow 1st Fr such as perhaps from Calder. Ditto for the 2nd Fr & or SC. What he was looking for was what did the horse normally do in these Fr's and he got that from looking from all its races and 1st Fr etc. Note he could adjust those abnormal Fr's by the track record and bring back to what the horse normally would do. Those that only look at the last line or two are going to miss many of winners. When doing this the "Hat " wasn't picking pace lines per say. He was picking contenders and knowing what their regular was could match them up. He wasn't picking lines 10 back etc. It was based on what the horse normally does vs. what he must do today against the contenders. He also was only a one horse better. I will disagree with Mark on one thing and that is that Bradshaw's methods and techniques do lend themselves to computerization. He worked in concert with the "Doc" and the match up is included in the RDSS readouts today. Those that rely strictly on the last race and only carry the match-up to the SC essentially are only speed handicappers. If that were the case than S, SP & EP would never get up. Another fallacy is just because a horse is in the lead at the 2nd call doesn't mean he can't be caught. Even in a mile race where 80% of the race is over. It really depends how fast the leader decelerates vs. how fast the others accelerate. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-06-2016 at 08:36 PM.