Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 08-08-2016, 05:49 PM

Many years ago, I heard some commentary about female horses. The gist of these remarks is that the female is much more apt to leave it all out on the track. As a result their recovery is prolonged. This was made in relation to some of the OUTSTANDING female turf runners of the time. In those cases, because the purses provide large earnings, they can afford to let a female take 6 to 8 weeks between races.
I don't believe that there is a conspiracy between trainers and jocks. Too easy to end up with adverse testimony before the Stewards. What I think happens is that the trainer will tell a jock, "Let her runaway from the gate", or "Don't push him out of the gate". Sometimes jock switches take place that will accomplish the same thing.
At small tracks with small barns they don't want to incur the expense of an exercise rider for workouts. So they will enter a race or two just to keep the horse fit. In this race, I was not bothered by the lack of effort by this 8 year old mare. I would have been bothered if she had made a serious effort in either of them as that would indicate that something is wrong. If you would have taken the 3rd line back on this mare and left all the other horses off their last line and looked at the Segment Screen you would see that this race put her right in the midst of the contention at or near the top of Finished Beaten lengths. If on the other hand that effort had put her nowhere near being competitive you could discount her. As I have written here on numerous occasions, minor league racing is a different world than the major tracks. You have guys that are struggling for survival. They don't want to spend 3 to 6 months getting a horse ready and when they win get $6.00 through the window. A $100 or $200 bet on this horse would have paid a great many expenses forward as well as paying off debt incurred. This is an extreme case however.
On a more straight forward level, this horse has won 7% of her races, so what is a fair bet, 8 -10/1. You were getting 50+/1 and a couple of bucks from your discretionary bankroll would have set up your week or month.

08-08-2016, 05:49 PM	#18
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Female horses Many years ago, I heard some commentary about female horses. The gist of these remarks is that the female is much more apt to leave it all out on the track. As a result their recovery is prolonged. This was made in relation to some of the OUTSTANDING female turf runners of the time. In those cases, because the purses provide large earnings, they can afford to let a female take 6 to 8 weeks between races. I don't believe that there is a conspiracy between trainers and jocks. Too easy to end up with adverse testimony before the Stewards. What I think happens is that the trainer will tell a jock, "Let her runaway from the gate", or "Don't push him out of the gate". Sometimes jock switches take place that will accomplish the same thing. At small tracks with small barns they don't want to incur the expense of an exercise rider for workouts. So they will enter a race or two just to keep the horse fit. In this race, I was not bothered by the lack of effort by this 8 year old mare. I would have been bothered if she had made a serious effort in either of them as that would indicate that something is wrong. If you would have taken the 3rd line back on this mare and left all the other horses off their last line and looked at the Segment Screen you would see that this race put her right in the midst of the contention at or near the top of Finished Beaten lengths. If on the other hand that effort had put her nowhere near being competitive you could discount her. As I have written here on numerous occasions, minor league racing is a different world than the major tracks. You have guys that are struggling for survival. They don't want to spend 3 to 6 months getting a horse ready and when they win get $6.00 through the window. A $100 or $200 bet on this horse would have paid a great many expenses forward as well as paying off debt incurred. This is an extreme case however. On a more straight forward level, this horse has won 7% of her races, so what is a fair bet, 8 -10/1. You were getting 50+/1 and a couple of bucks from your discretionary bankroll would have set up your week or month.