Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 08-08-2016, 09:24 PM

In Quirin's book, he found that STATISTICALLY, now with year round racing, the probability of a probable overworked horse's winning is not that much better than a fresh layoff.

Each horse has to be viewed as an individual situation. If the layoff suggested real injury (long time off, big class drop, few works on the path to a return) of course make exception by assigning the horse about a 30% higher odds threshold to overcome that.

Higher class horses, particularly turfers, can usually pick it up where they left off...however I see those that just cannot let the BIG ones go, even after repeated experiences tell you that the animal has soured to racing. They should get TWO excuses, NO MORE.

08-08-2016, 09:24 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	In Quirin's book, he found that STATISTICALLY, now with year round racing, the probability of a probable overworked horse's winning is not that much better than a fresh layoff. Each horse has to be viewed as an individual situation. If the layoff suggested real injury (long time off, big class drop, few works on the path to a return) of course make exception by assigning the horse about a 30% higher odds threshold to overcome that. Higher class horses, particularly turfers, can usually pick it up where they left off...however I see those that just cannot let the BIG ones go, even after repeated experiences tell you that the animal has soured to racing. They should get TWO excuses, NO MORE. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."