Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 09-19-2016, 08:43 PM

I believe your approach is all wrong in using betting unit guidelines for selecting contenders etc. What you should be doing is accessing weather the horse is a legitimate contender for winning and only concentrating on those horses for win.

Years ago hiding horses was a legitimate concept however today we have watered down racing with few foals, too many tracks, too few contenders and too many Gr 1 etc. Hell most these Gr 1 winners aren't even Gr 3 type horses. So what you have are only 2 real contenders in most races today and the public is all over them. Hiding these favorites really puts you on horses that are truly not win contenders. It like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.

What to do? I concentrate on picking winners and let the odds fall where they may. Sure the public makes mistakes and you'll get a good payoff. But those horses are true win contenders. With these low paying horses I look to make money through Ex, DD, P3 etc. My first choice is DD as its easier to pick winners than ex. etc. I also demand at least double of what I'm investing so as to make a profit. Playing an ex. or DD that will pay $8 or $10 and putting in $12 is crazy. One should know before hand what your combinations are and you better be consulting the payoff matrics. Even on a P3 this can be judged by the DD payoffs. It is just amazing how many good payoff there are even with a favorite winning. When you can't get your price pass. No one ever lost money passing a race. There generally another one coming 20 minutes later.

Stick to true win contenders, they either measure up or they don't. Don't be so forgiving, especially for a horse that has raced at todays distance, surface and condition multiple time or is some 6 year old and up. Those that are young (3 yr)and haven't disgraced themselves are eligible to improve. Start by reading today's race conditions as an aide to discard horses or elevate them.
Mitch44

09-19-2016, 08:43 PM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	I believe your approach is all wrong in using betting unit guidelines for selecting contenders etc. What you should be doing is accessing weather the horse is a legitimate contender for winning and only concentrating on those horses for win. Years ago hiding horses was a legitimate concept however today we have watered down racing with few foals, too many tracks, too few contenders and too many Gr 1 etc. Hell most these Gr 1 winners aren't even Gr 3 type horses. So what you have are only 2 real contenders in most races today and the public is all over them. Hiding these favorites really puts you on horses that are truly not win contenders. It like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. What to do? I concentrate on picking winners and let the odds fall where they may. Sure the public makes mistakes and you'll get a good payoff. But those horses are true win contenders. With these low paying horses I look to make money through Ex, DD, P3 etc. My first choice is DD as its easier to pick winners than ex. etc. I also demand at least double of what I'm investing so as to make a profit. Playing an ex. or DD that will pay $8 or $10 and putting in $12 is crazy. One should know before hand what your combinations are and you better be consulting the payoff matrics. Even on a P3 this can be judged by the DD payoffs. It is just amazing how many good payoff there are even with a favorite winning. When you can't get your price pass. No one ever lost money passing a race. There generally another one coming 20 minutes later. Stick to true win contenders, they either measure up or they don't. Don't be so forgiving, especially for a horse that has raced at todays distance, surface and condition multiple time or is some 6 year old and up. Those that are young (3 yr)and haven't disgraced themselves are eligible to improve. Start by reading today's race conditions as an aide to discard horses or elevate them. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-19-2016 at 08:45 PM.