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Poweshow -
Good questions from you and good answers from Mitch and Randy. Here is another view for you and this is how I play my winners:
Start by reading Huey Mahl's article in Follow Up #2. Let me know if you can't find it. Starts on page 33. This article will tell you exactly how to maximize your win bets and their returns - whether 1, 2, or more horses to win. Mainly its 2 horses to win with the Sartin Methodology. This is only my opinion of course, but I believe this is one of the very best articles ever published out of all the Sartin material. And I have nearly all of it.
First, continue to work on win contenders, staying consistent, as the guys above noted.
Then, in a nutshell, after you are finished handicapping a race: select your top 2 horses to win, then note your third and possibly a fourth horse (along with all of their odds). Take the odds of your top 2 and figure the return when betting them with a proper split (Huey has a great chart in there to split bets properly). This return is easier to figure than people realize. I can do it in about 10 seconds. The formula is in the article and goes like this: add 1 to the odds of both horses. Then take those two numbers and multiply them. Divide that answer by those same two numbers added together. Then subtract one. That tells you precisely what the 2 horses will pay regardless of which one wins.
Example: 2-1 and 7-1 horses. Add 1 to each. (3x8)/(3+8). This equals 2.18. Then, lastly, subtract 1. So the two horse entry pays 1.18-1. Close to 6/5. Huey explains in the article to not go lower than 1/2 entry odds. I stay up around .75-1. The average Sartin Player, over the long haul, should have a 2 horse winning odds of about even money to about 1.25-1. So the example above, even though 6/5 sounds low, is on the mark.
Sometimes you can split 3 horses. In the Travers this year, my top 3 horses were 11-1 (the eventual winner), 9-1, and 19-1. You have to run it through the equation a second time to include the third horse, but this was a 3 horse play at 3.25-1. A fourth horse probably could have been added as well.
This is how Sartin players get price horses....because we dutch them and have more than one way to win. I see from above that you nailed a $100 horse and so you have already experienced the reasoning. A tremendous hit!
A few other points and then I'll go. Almost nobody will bet 2 horses to win. Anytime somebody tries to explain why it shouldn't be done, I ask them if every exacta ticket in their pocket is a straight exacta including only one horse in each slot. Of course almost every exacta play by the typical player has 3 or 4 horses boxed or wheeled. So they have 3 or 4 horses to win on their exacta ticket, but meanwhile it is "stupid" to play more than one horse to win.
Lastly, only experience can guide you when your 2 horses are below the minimum you will take. If my second choice is a low priced favorite, I may play my first and third horses. When the low priced favorite is the top horse, I may single him, or may hit him in the place pool alone, or pass. Or consider the exacta. Its hard for me to have a consistent approach on this situation. But when the favorite is third or worse, go for it. Especially when he does not fit the win model.
Best of luck and keep it pumping!
Chuck
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