[Ted Craven]

Bill, I'll kick off from my guidelines re favourites as good candidates to lose.

1. Layoff > 270 days (the RDSS default setting for demotion to Secondary)
2. First time Turf
3. First time Main Track, though not a deal-breaker; i.e. all previous races run on Turf and today is Main Track.
4. CSR > 5 with NO excuse for last 2 lines poor ASR (Adjusted SR)
5. Top ranked on Win Odds but no confirmation from Tx1 or Tx2 (PW%) ratings
6. Early horse needing open lengths at Call1 who will be challenged by multiple bona fide Fighters, especially if its Call1 (and Call2) times are not superior to those other E's (though anecdotally, these E's seem rarely to be designated clear bet-time favourites: the challenge is obvious to the public)

I'll post more as they come up in practice.

Any time we can statistically eliminate a favourite or near-favourite at bet-time, with the good other ratings we are developing, profit in SOME pool can be a 'mortal lock'.

Thanks Bill.

Ted